Iran

The Iranian nuclear facility in Bushehr. AP photo.

For the past several years, Iran has been under intense scrutiny from the international community over its nuclear program. Intelligence estimates agree that Iran has not yet made the political decision to pursue a nuclear weapon, but Tehran's failure to declare all nuclear facilities and materials in a timely fashion, along with past weapons activities, has led to increased concerns that Iran intends move forward with the development of a nuclear weapon.

However, most Iran specialists, including nationally recognized experts at the Center, believe that there is ample time for the United States, Iran, the IAEA, and other interested parties to resolve the nuclear dispute through diplomacy. Military force should not be contemplated at this time and should be considered in the future only if it meets basic requirements - including support from Congress and the U.N. - and is judged to be a net advantage to U.S. interests.

At this time, Iran does not pose an imminent threat to the U.S. There are numerous challenges - including mastering the nuclear fuel cycle - on the road to developing a nuclear weapon. Building a nuclear warhead and placing it on a suitable delivery vehicle, a process sometimes referred to as "weaponization," is a difficult endeavor.

RECENT ANALYSIS

Apr 19, 2013

Center for Arms Control & Non-Proliferation and the Center for National Policy Co-Host Seminar

The rhetoric from North Korea has become increasingly hostile. Last Friday, April 12th, the country warned that “nuclear war is unavoidable” and declared that Tokyo would be its first target in the event of a war on the Korean Peninsula. This statement is just the latest in an escalating war of words and rising tensions between North Korean officials and the U.S. Join Truman Project President, just back from Japan, Rachel Kleinfeld and an expert panel as they discuss the current situation in North Korea, how the situation differs from that of Iran, and how we can better understand Asian hard security and the nuclear challenge.
Featuring:
L. Gordon Flake, Executive Director, Mansfield Foundation
Laicie Heeley, Director of Middle East and Defense Policy, Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation
Alexandra Toma, Founder, Fissile Materials Working Group & Center Board member

Apr 18, 2013

Could a nuclear-armed Iran be contained?

A strategy of deterrence and containment should be seen as a serious and plausible means of dealing with a potential nuclear-armed Iran, writes Kingston Reif in his April column for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

Apr 7, 2013

Fletcher Forum: As Relations Begin To Thaw, Time to Reach a Deal with Iran by Laicie Heeley

"Small steps have the power to diffuse the dangerously tense stalemate that has become the norm between Tehran and Washington. Now is the time to recognize and respond to this moment of opportunity or risk wasting a chance to stop an Iranian nuclear weapon and avoid another large-scale war in the Middle East," writes Laicie Heeley in The Fletcher Forum.

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CENTER EXPERT

Lieutenant General Robert G. Gard, Jr. (USA, ret.)

Chairman
202-546-0795 ext. 2111
rgard AT armscontrolcenter DOT org

CENTER EXPERT

Laicie Olson

Senior Policy Analyst
202-546-0795 ext 2105
lolson AT armscontrolcenter DOT org

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