North Korea

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il with his son and heir apparent Kim Jong-un.

North Korea has a new leader, Kim Jong-un, the son of the late Kim Jong-il and grandson of the regime’s founder Kim Il-sung. While it appears the young leader in his late twenties is still trying to consolidate his power base, it seems likely that he will continue the same nuclear and foreign policies of his predecessors. Questions remain about how to address the North Korean nuclear dilemma amid growing beliefs that Pyongyang is unwilling to surrender its nuclear ambitions.

In April 2012, North Korea defied international warnings and launched a three-stage long-range rocket and satellite on the heels of a nuclear and missile moratoria deal it struck with the United States on February 29. Pyongyang claims the launch was for peaceful scientific purposes, but the international community regarded it as a long-range ballistic missile test. The launch failed, but that has not quelled fears that Pyongyang seeks to develop ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear warheads. In November 2010, the North sank a South Korean vessel the Cheonan and shelled Yeonpyeong Island that killed civilians.

The North Korean proliferation threat comes in two forms: vertical (development of its nuclear capability) and horizontal (spread of nuclear know-how and technology to others). Pyongyang tested two nuclear devices and is believed to be working on a third nuclear test. Experts say Pyongyang has enough fissile material for 4-6 nuclear weapons. The regime is also scrambling to develop its ballistic missile program. The critical question is whether and when Pyongyang will be able to tip a missile with a nuclear warhead that can reach US allies in the region or even the US mainland. The regime also appears to be developing its ties with other actors bent on acquiring a nuclear capability, including those in the Middle East.

North Korea’s fundamental objective seems clear: regime survival and status as a nuclear power. It has recently revised its constitution, which now refers to North Korea as a nuclear weapon state.

Pyongyang walked away from the Six-Party Talks in 2008, and the viability of the framework has been put into question. Since taking office, the Obama administration appears to have opted for containing and managing the problem, and will continue to do so until after the 2012 presidential elections in the wake of the broken February 2012 deal. Progress on the nuclear dilemma will only come from aggressive diplomacy and creative ideas – backed by the pressure of sanctions – which directly target the crux of denuclearization, namely, the irreversible removal of all fissile materials and explosive devices and the dismantlement of all proliferation-prone nuclear facilities.

RECENT ANALYSIS

Apr 19, 2013

Center for Arms Control & Non-Proliferation and the Center for National Policy Co-Host Seminar

The rhetoric from North Korea has become increasingly hostile. Last Friday, April 12th, the country warned that “nuclear war is unavoidable” and declared that Tokyo would be its first target in the event of a war on the Korean Peninsula. This statement is just the latest in an escalating war of words and rising tensions between North Korean officials and the U.S. Join Truman Project President, just back from Japan, Rachel Kleinfeld and an expert panel as they discuss the current situation in North Korea, how the situation differs from that of Iran, and how we can better understand Asian hard security and the nuclear challenge.
Featuring:
L. Gordon Flake, Executive Director, Mansfield Foundation
Laicie Heeley, Director of Middle East and Defense Policy, Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation
Alexandra Toma, Founder, Fissile Materials Working Group & Center Board member

Apr 15, 2013

Federation of American Scientists Blog Post on North Korea Quotes Duyeon Kim

Mistakes, miscalculations, or misunderstandings of intentions on either side of the 38th parallel could unintentionally trigger military conflict. The West Sea has always been a theater for inter-Korean skirmishes and a possible target for a North Korean attack on South Korean islands.

Apr 11, 2013

Discovery News Coverage of Missile Defense Technology & North Korea Quotes Philip Coyle

"The real value as a deterrent is to show we're interested in the region," Philip Coyle III, a former associate director for national security in the White House Office of Science and Technology, said in an email.

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CENTER EXPERT

Duyeon Kim

Deputy Director of Nuclear Non-Proliferation
202-546-0795
dkim AT armscontrolcenter DOT org

ARTICLES & FACT SHEETS

TEXT OF NUCLEAR AGREEMENTS

SANCTIONS

CHEONAN ATTACK

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