Estimated Cost of Bush Missile Defense Plans As Much As $273 Billion
Aug 14, 2001
Press Release: August 14, 2001
Contact: John Isaacs - (202) 543-4100 x.131
According to a new estimate by the Center for Arms Control & Non-Proliferation, the Bush Administration’s missile defense plans - both national and theater - could cost as much as $273 billion. Given that these programs have a bad history of cost overruns, the final tally could be even higher. To date, the Bush Administration has been vague about the cost of its missile defense plans, in part because it has not decided which systems to deploy, but also in part to avoid congressional and public sticker shock about the huge cost involved to build and operate missile defense. According to Council for a Livable World president John Isaacs, “The Bush Administration has good reason to be concerned about sticker shock. Missile defenses will be extraordinarily expensive at a time when the Pentagon is finding itself hard-pressed to fund all its priorities.” In addition, the Center for Arms Control released an estimate of the amount that the U.S. has already spent on missile defense since the 1950’s, a total of $148 billion (in today’s dollars) as estimated by the highly respected Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessment. This $273 estimate relies primarily on 1996 Congressional Budget Office (CBO) figures used by the Senate Budget Committee to estimate the cost to build, deploy and operate a layered ballistic missile systems between 1996 and 2030 (May 15, 1996 letter of June E. O’Neill, Director, CBO, to Rep. Floyd Spence, July 26, 1996 letter of June E. O’Neill, Director, CBO, to Senator Jim Exon, Senate Budget Committee analysis, August 19, 1996). However, the CBO estimate of up to $184 billion did not include theater defenses and a sea-based defense. Adding them yields the Council’s $273 billion figure. $78 - $184 billion - Senate Budget Committee, CBO $37 - $43 billion - Council Center for Arms Control estimate of sea-based defense $45.9 billion - Defense Week estimate from BMDO for theater missile efenses $160.9 - $272.9 billion - TOTAL
The CBO determined that the smallest system potentially capable of meeting the criteria outlined in the Dole-Gingrich “Defend America Act”: $8.5 billion - 100 ground based interceptors at a single site. $5 billion - Space and Missile Tracking System (SMTS) involving 24 space-based sensors. $17 billion - 500 space-based interceptors to form the upper layer of defense.
Then to meet the requirement to defend against a “larger and more sophisticated threat,” the CBO assumed the following additions to the low end system: $4.6 billion - 200 additional ground based interceptors at two additional sites $25 billion - 20 space-based lasers A Center for Arms Control & Non-Proliferation study prepared in 2000 suggested that the cost of a sea-based missile defense based on Aegis ships, including the cost of replacing ships to cover traditional fleet defense missions, would cost between $37 and $43 billion. (“Taking Missile Defense to Sea,” Rodney Jones). An April 2, 2001 Defense Week story, citing Ballistic Missile Defense Organization figures, estimated the cost of several theater defense systems, including the Theater High Altitude Area Defense system and the Patriot Advance Capability-3 system as $45.9 billion
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