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The Iranian nuclear facility in Bushehr. AP photo.Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran.

RECENT ANALYSIS

  • Jun 23, 2009
    U.S. Foreign Policy toward Iran in the Obama Era
    Though burdened with political constraints on its freedom of action, the Obama administration already has made overtures to Iran that may appear merely symbolic but have historically proven successful at breaking the ice in preparation for larger diplomatic initiatives. In this new policy brief, Travis Sharp argues that there are reasons to be guardedly optimistic about the future of U.S.-Iranian bilateral relations.
  • Mar 18, 2009
    Congress and President Obama's National Security Agenda
    If Republicans continue to rally around "no," there will be important implications for national security issues in Congress over the next two years. John Isaacs explores three broad groups of executive-legislative national security topics in this article published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Online.
  • Feb 26, 2009
    Fiscal Year 2010 Pentagon Defense Spending Request: February "Topline"
    On February 26, the Obama administration will release a preliminary outline of its spending priorities and agency budgets (known as “toplines”) for Fiscal Year (FY) 2010, which begins on October 1. The defense budget topline released on February 26 communicates an overall funding level without including programmatic specifics, which will be released in April.
  • See more articles »

Robert Gard

CENTER EXPERT

Lieutenant General Robert G. Gard, Jr. (USA, ret.)

Chairman
202-546-0795 ext. 2111
rgard AT armscontrolcenter DOT org

Click here to read "Strengthening U.S. Security Through Non-Proliferation and Arms Control: Recommendations for the Obama Administration"

For the past several years, Iran has been under intense scrutiny from the international community over its nuclear program. While Iran's intentions are unclear, its failure to declare all nuclear facilities and materials in a timely fashion has led to increased concerns that Iran intends to develop nuclear weapons.

Most Iran specialists, including nationally recognized experts at the Center, believe that the main factor driving Iran's interest in nuclear technology - be it civilian or military - is national pride. Unfortunately, United States policy has been to publicly threaten and insult Iran while taking provocative actions such as adopting a policy of regime change, attempting to increase unilateral sanctions, deploying additional military assets in the region, and arresting Iranian representatives in Iraq. Such policies are counterproductive, strengthening Iranian hardliners and weakening the position of anti-nuclear and pro-democracy elements in Iran.

Iran does not pose an imminent threat to the U.S. and is unlikely to do so for years, perhaps as long as a decade according to American intelligence estimates. There are numerous challenges - including mastering the nuclear fuel cycle - on the road to developing a nuclear weapon. Building a nuclear warhead and placing it on a suitable delivery vehicle, a process sometimes referred to as "weaponization," is a difficult endeavor requiring technologies Iran has not even started working on.

There is ample time for the United States, Iran, the IAEA, and other interested parties to resolve the nuclear dispute through diplomacy. Military force should not be contemplated at this time and should be considered in the future only if it meets basic requirements - including support from Congress and the U.N. - and is judged to be a net advantage to U.S. interests.

ARTICLES & FACT SHEETS

Jun 23, 2009 U.S. Foreign Policy toward Iran in the Obama Era

Jul 7, 2008 Is Iran Currently an Existential Threat to the United States? A Side-By-Side Comparison of Military Capabilities

Jun 9, 2008 Prominent Calls for Diplomacy with Iran

Apr 22, 2008 American-Iranian Relations: A Code of Conduct and Guide for Action

Apr 22, 2008 An Exercise in Futility: State Department 'Democracy Promotion' Funding for Iran

Apr 11, 2007 Risky Business: Why Attacking Iran Is a Bad Idea

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