Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation

2009-2010 College Debate Topic on Nuclear Weapons: A Guide to Background Materials, Publications, & Organizations

by Travis Sharp [contact information]

by Kingston Reif [contact information]

Updated December 3, 2009

DEBATE TOPIC

Resolved: The United States Federal Government should substantially reduce the size of its nuclear weapons arsenal, and/or substantially reduce and restrict the role and/or missions of its nuclear weapons arsenal.

BACKGROUND MATERIALS BY TOPIC

1. Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START)

START Resource Center (Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation), http://www.armscontrolcenter.org/resources/start_resources/, includes:

Primers
- U.S. and Russian Arms Control Treaty Limits
- Current Nuclear Weapons Stockpiles
- Counting Rules under START and Treaty of Moscow
- Arguments for Nuclear Weapons Reductions
- Technical Issues for a Follow-On START Agreement
- START Follow-On Timeline
- What the Administration and Key Democrats Say
- Moderates and Conservatives Supporting Nuclear Weapons Cuts
- Newspaper Editorials Supporting Nuclear Weapons Reductions
- From the Other Side: Voices Opposed to Further Reductions
- Previous Votes on Arms Control Treaties by Republican Senators

Analysis
- Local Priorities vs. National Interests in Arms Control (Aug 2009)
- Progress on Nuclear Weapons Reductions (Jul 2009)
- Decrease Stockpiles, Increase Security (Jul 2009)
- The Obama-Medvedev Security Summit (Jul 2009)
- Backgrounder on Obama-Medvedev July 2009 Moscow Summit (Jul 2009)
- Will the Senate Support New Nuclear Arms Reductions? (Jun 2009)
- Nukes Remain Top Security Issue (Jun 2009)
- START and Further Nuclear Reductions: Where Are We? (Apr 2009)
- Support for Nuclear Reductions Builds with Two New Reports (May 2009)

2. Force posture and targeting doctrine

Supportive of nuclear weapons reductions

- Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, Pruning the Nuclear Triad? Pros and Cons of Bombers, Missiles, and Submarines (2009), http://www.armscontrolcenter.org/policy/nuclearweapons/articles/120309_nuclear_triad_pros_cons/

- Sidney Drell and James Goodby, What Are Nuclear Weapons For? (Arms Control Association 2007), http://www.armscontrol.org/system/files/20071104_Drell_Goodby_07_new.pdf

- Charles Glaser and Steve Fetter, Counterforce Revisited (International Security 2005), http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/703/counterforce_revisited.html

- Andrew Grotto and Joe Cirincione, Orienting the 2009 Nuclear Posture Review (Center for American Progress 2008), http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/11/pdf/nuclear_posture.pdf

- Harold Feiveson, The Nuclear Turning Point: A Blueprint for Deep Cuts and De-Alerting of Nuclear Weapons (Brookings Institution 1999), http://www.brookings.edu/press/Books/1999/nucturn.aspx

- Hans Kristensen, Robert Norris, Ivan Oelrich, From Counterforce to Minimal Deterrence: A New Nuclear Policy on the Path Toward Eliminating Nuclear Weapons (Federation of American Scientists and National Resources Defense Council 2009), http://www.fas.org/pubs/_docs/OccasionalPaper7.pdf

- Brian Taylor, Breaking the Disarmament Deadlock (Council for a Livable World Education Fund 1998), http://www.armscontrolcenter.org/assets/pdfs/disarmament_deadlock.pdf

Opposed to/skeptical about nuclear weapons reductions

- David Cooper, Aligning Disarmament to Nuclear Dangers: Off to a Hasty START? (National Defense University 2009), http://www.ndu.edu/WMDCenter/docUploaded/SF244.pdf

- National Institute for Public Policy, Planning the Future U.S. Nuclear Force (2009), http://www.nipp.org/National%20Institute%20Press/Current%20Publications/PDF/Planning%20the%20Future%20US%20Nuclear%20Force%20I_txt.pdf

- National Institute for Public Policy, The Necessity of the U.S. Nuclear Deterrent (2007), http://www.nipp.org/Publication/Downloads/Publication%20Archive%20PDF/Deterrence%20Paper%20-%20version%202.pdf

- The New Deterrent Working Group, U.S. Nuclear Deterrence in the 21st Century (2009), http://www.centerforsecuritypolicy.org/upload/wysiwyg/center%20publication%20pdfs/NDWG-%20Getting%20It%20Right.pdf

- Keith Payne, How Much Is Enough? (National Institute for Public Policy 2009), http://www.lanl.gov/conferences/sw/2009/docs/payne_livermore-2.pdf

Academic/organizationally neutral

- Final Report of the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States (2009), http://www.usip.org/strategic_posture/index.html

- Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States, In the Eyes of the Experts: Analysis and Comments on America's Strategic Posture (2009), http://www.usip.org/strategic-posture-commission/in-the-eyes-the-experts

- Final Report of the Council on Foreign Relations Task Force on U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy (2009), http://www.cfr.org/publication/19259/cfr_task_force_report.html

- Anya Loukianova, The Nuclear Posture Review Debate (Nuclear Threat Initiative 2009), http://www.nti.org/e_research/e3_nuclear_posture_review_debate.html

- Roles of U.S. Nuclear Forces: Implications for U.S. Strategy (RAND Corporation 2003), http://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/2005/MR1231.pdf

3. Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty

Supportive of U.S. ratification

- David Hafemeister, The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty: Effectively Verifiable (Arms Control Today 2008), http://www.armscontrol.org/print/3391

- Jofi Joseph, Renew the Drive for CTBT Ratification (Washington Quarterly 2009), http://www.twq.com/09april/docs/09apr_Joseph.pdf

- Daryl Kimball, The Logic of the Test Ban Treaty (Arms Control Today 2009), http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2009_5/focus

Opposed to U.S. ratification

- Mackubin Thomas Owens, The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, Junk Arms Control (Claremont Institute 1999), http://www.claremont.org/projects/print_page.asp?pageid=1886

Academic/organizationally neutral

- Sean Dunlop and Jean du Preez, The United States and the CTBT: Renewed Hope or Politics as Usual? (Nuclear Threat Initiative 2009), http://www.nti.org/e_research/e3_ctbt_united_states.html

- Jonathan Medalia, Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty: Background and Current Developments (Congressional Research Service 2009), http://assets.opencrs.com/rpts/RL33548_20090128.pdf

- Technical Issues Related to Ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (National Academy of Sciences 2002), http://books.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=10471

4. Conventionally-Armed Long-Range Missiles (i.e. Prompt Global Strike)

- Steve Andreasen, Off Target? The Bush Administration’s Plan to Arm Long-Range Ballistic Missiles with Conventional Missiles (Arms Control Today 2006), http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2006_07-08/CoverStory

- Dennis Gormley, The Path to Deep Nuclear Reductions: Dealing with American Conventional Superiority (IFRI 2009), http://www.ifri.org/files/Securite_defense/PP29_Gormley.pdf

- Bruce Sugden, Speed Kills: Analyzing the Deployment of Conventional Ballistic Missiles (International Security 2009), http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/19349/speed_kills.html

- Amy Woolf, Conventional Warheads for Long-Range Ballistic Missiles: Background and Issues for Congress (Congressional Research Service 2009), http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/RL33067.pdf

5. Cost of nuclear weapons

- Steven Kosiak, Spending on U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces: Plans & Options for the 21st Century (Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments 2006), http://www.csbaonline.org/4Publications/PubLibrary/R.20060901.Spending_on_US_Str/R.20060901.Spending_on_US_Str.pdf

- Stephen Schwartz, ed., Atomic Audit: The Costs and Consequences of U.S. Nuclear Weapons since 1940 (Brookings Institution Press 1998), http://www.brookings.edu/projects/archive/nucweapons/weapons.aspx

- Stephen Schwartz and Deepti Choubey, Nuclear Security Spending: Assessing Costs, Examining Priorities (Carnegie Endowment 2009), http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=22601

6. Effects of nuclear weapons

- Ashton Carter, Michael May, and William Perry, The Day After: Action Following a Nuclear Blast in a U.S. City (Washington Quarterly 2007), http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/The%20Day%20After-%20Action%20Following%20a%20Nuclear%20Blast%20in%20a%20U.S.%20City.pdf

- Samuel Glasstone and Philip Dolan, The Effects of Nuclear Weapons, 3rd edition (Department of Defense 1977), http://www.cddc.vt.edu/host/atomic/nukeffct/index.html#EONW77

- Ira Helfand, Assessment of the Extent of Projected Global Famine Resulting From Limited, Regional Nuclear War (Physicians for Social Responsibility), http://www.psr.org/assets/pdfs/an-assessment-of-the-extent.pdf

- Nuclear Weapon Blast Effects Calculator (Federation of American Scientists), http://www.fas.org/programs/ssp/nukes/nuclear_weapon_effects/nuclearwpneffctcalc.html

- Nuclear Weapon Fallout Effects Calculator (Federation of American Scientists), http://www.fas.org/programs/ssp/nukes/nuclear_weapon_effects/falloutcalc.html

7. Iran

- Curbing Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions (National Discussion & Debate Series 2009), http://millercenter.org/public/debates/iran

- William Luers, Thomas Pickering, and Jim Walsh, How to Deal with Iran (New York Review of Books 2009), http://www.nybooks.com/articles/22271

- Michael McFaul, Abbas Milani, and Larry Diamond, A Win-Win U.S. Strategy for Dealing with Iran (Washington Quarterly 2007), http://www.twq.com/07winter/docs/07winter_mcfaul.pdf

- Mohsen Milani, Tehran’s Take: Understanding Iran’s U.S. Policy (Foreign Affairs 2009), http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/65123/mohsen-m-milani/tehrans-take

- Whitney Raas and Austin Long, Osirak Redux? Assessing Israeli Capabilities to Destroy Iranian Nuclear Facilities (International Security 2007), http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/is3104_pp007-033_raas_long.pdf

- Kingston Reif, Current Status of Iran’s Nuclear and Ballistic Missile Programs (Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation 2009), http://www.armscontrolcenter.org/policy/iran/articles/081709_factsheet_irans_missile_programs/

8. Missile Defense

- Charles Glaser and Steve Fetter, National Missile Defense and the Future of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Policy (International Security 2001), http://www.publicpolicy.umd.edu/Fetter/2001-IS-NMD.pdf

- Steven Hildreth and Carl Ek, Long-Range Ballistic Missile Defense in Europe (Congressional Research Service 2009), http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/weapons/RL34051.pdf

- John Isaacs and Travis Sharp, Bargaining Chip or Gas Mask? Prospects for Missile Defense (Carnegie Council 2009), http://www.cceia.org/resources/articles_papers_reports/0023.html

- George Lewis and Theodore Postol, European Missile Defense: The Technological Basis of Russian Concerns (Arms Control Today 2007), http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2007_10/LewisPostol

- James Lindsay and Michael O’Hanlon, Defending America: The Case for Limited National Missile Defense (Brookings 2001)

9. No First Use of Nuclear Weapons

- McGeorge Bundy, William Crowe, Jr., and Sidney Drell, Reducing Nuclear Danger (Foreign Affairs 1993), http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/48766/mcgeorge-bundy-william-j-crowe-jr-and-sidney-d-drell/reducing-nuclear-danger

- McGeorge Bundy, George Kennan, Robert McNamara, and Gerard Smith, Nuclear Weapons and the Atlantic Alliance (Foreign Affairs 1982), http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/36184/mcgeorge-bundy-george-f-kennan-robert-s-mcnamara-and-gerard-c-sm/nuclear-weapons-and-the-atlantic-alliance

- Jean Du Preez, The Impact of the Nuclear Posture Review on the International Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime (The Nonproliferation Review 2002), http://cns.miis.edu/npr/pdfs/93dupreez.pdf

- Hans Kristensen, White House Guidance Led to New Nuclear Strike Plans against Proliferators, Document Shows (Federation of American Scientists 2007), http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2007/11/white_house_guidance_led_to_ne.php

- Jeffrey Lewis, Minimum Deterrence (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 2008)

- Scott Sagan, The Case for No First Use (Survival 2009), http://fsi.stanford.edu/publications/the_case_for_no_first_use/

- Stanley Foundation, A New Look at No First Use (2008), http://www.stanleyfoundation.org/publications/pdb/NoFirstUsePDB708.pdf

- John Steinbruner, Looking Back: Carter’s 1978 Declaration and the Significance of Security Assurances (Arms Control Today 2008), http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2008_10/lookingback

- Nina Tannenwald, The Nuclear Taboo: The Untied States and the Normative Basis of Nuclear Non-Use (International Organization 1999)

10. Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)

- Lewis Dunn, The NPT: Assessing the Past, Building the Future (Nonproliferation Review 2009), http://cns.miis.edu/npr/pdfs/npr_16-2_dunn.pdf

- Rebecca Johnson, Enhanced Prospects for 2010: An Analysis of the Third PrepCom and the Outlook for the 2010 NPT Review Conference (Arms Control Today 2009), http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2009_6/Johnson

- Daryl Kimball, NPT: Past, Present, and Future (Arms Control Today 2008), http://www.armscontrol.org/node/2933

11. North Korea

- Siegfried Hecker, Denuclearizing North Korea (Bulletin of Atomic Scientists 2008), http://iis-db.stanford.edu/pubs/22161/064002011_0-1.pdf

- Mary Beth Nikitin, North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons: Technical Issues (Congressional Research Service 2009), http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/RL34256.pdf

- Larry Niksch, North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons Development and Diplomacy (Congressional Research Service 2009), http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/RL33590.pdf

- Charles “Jack” Pritchard, Failed Diplomacy: The Tragic Story of How North Korea Got the Bomb (Brookings 2007)

12. Public opinion

- Gallup poll on importance of nonproliferation (February 2008), http://www.gallup.com/poll/116350/Position-World.aspx

- Greenberg Quinlan Rosner poll on support for Obama’s nuclear weapons policies (May 2009), http://www.armscontrolcenter.org/resources/061609_obama_nuclear_policies_poll/

- Harris Interactive poll on nuclear weapons encouraging proliferation (August 2008), http://nuclearweaponsfree.presstools.org/node/32423

- WorldPublicOpinion.org poll on elimination of nuclear weapons (December 2008), http://worldpublicopinion.org/pipa/articles/international_security_bt/577.php

13. Scientific and technical skills

- Final Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Nuclear Deterrence Skills (2008), http://www.acq.osd.mil/dsb/reports/2008-09-NDS.pdf

- Leveraging Science for Security: A Strategy for the Nuclear Weapons Laboratories in the 21st Century (Stimson Center 2009), http://www.stimson.org/pub.cfm?ID=760

14. Stockpiles

Current stockpiles by country

- Hans Kristensen, Status of World Nuclear Forces (Federation of American Scientists), http://www.fas.org/programs/ssp/nukes/nuclearweapons/nukestatus.html

Current size and configuration of U.S. nuclear stockpile

- Robert Norris and Hans Kristensen, Nuclear Notebook: U.S. Nuclear Forces, 2009 (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 2009), http://thebulletin.metapress.com/content/f64x2k3716wq9613/fulltext.pdf

- Amy Woolf, U.S. Strategic Nuclear Forces: Background, Development, and Issues (Congressional Research Service 2009), http://fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/RL33640.pdf

Historical stockpiles by country, 1945-2006

- Robert Norris and Hans Kristensen, Nuclear Notebook: Global Nuclear Stockpiles, 1945-2006 (Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 2006), http://thebulletin.metapress.com/content/c4120650912x74k7/fulltext.pdf

15. Tactical/Nonstrategic Nuclear Weapons

- Gunnar Arbman and Charles Thornton, Russia’s Tactical Nuclear Weapons Part I: Background and Policy Issues (Swedish Defense Research Agency 2003), http://www.cissm.umd.edu/papers/files/thorntonrussia.pdf

- Gunnar Arbman and Charles Thornton, Russia’s Tactical Nuclear Weapons Part II: Technical Issues and Policy Recommendations (Swedish Defense Research Agency 2005), http://www.foi.se/upload/pdf/FOI-RussiasTacticalNuclearWeapons.pdf

- Hans Kristensen, Russian Tactical Nuclear Weapons (Federation of American Scientists 2009), http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2009/03/russia-2.php

- Amy Woolf, Nonstrategic Nuclear Weapons (Congressional Research Service 2009), http://fas.org/sgp/crs/nuke/RL32572.pdf

16. U.S. nuclear weapons policy (Cold War and beyond)

- Joe Cirincione, Bomb Scare: The History and Future of Nuclear Weapons (2007)

- Lawrence Freedman, The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy, 3rd edition (2003)

- John Lewis Gaddis, Strategies of Containment, revised and expanded edition (2005)

- Keith Payne, The Great American Gamble: Deterrence Theory and Practice from the Cold War to the Twenty-First Century (2008)

- Scott Sagan and Kenneth Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed (2002)

17. World free of nuclear weapons

- John Holdren, Getting to Zero: Is Pursuing a Nuclear-Weapon-Free World Too Difficult? Too Dangerous? Too Distracting? (Belfer Center 1998), http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/disc_paper_98_24.pdf

- Global Zero Program (Stimson Center), http://www.stimson.org/nuke/?SN=NW200707271363

- Charles Glaser, The Flawed Case for Nuclear Disarmament (Survival 1998), http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all~content=a780011902

- George Perkovich and James Acton, eds., Abolishing Nuclear Weapons: A Debate (Carnegie Endowment 2009), http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=22748

- George Shultz, William Perry, Henry Kissinger, and Sam Nunn, A World Free of Nuclear Weapons (Wall Street Journal 2007), http://www.hoover.org/publications/digest/6731276.html

- George Shultz, William Perry, Henry Kissinger, and Sam Nunn, Toward a Nuclear-Free World (Wall Street Journal 2008), http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120036422673589947.html

PUBLICATIONS

Blogs

- Arms Control Wonk: http://www.armscontrolwonk.com/

- Nukes of Hazard: http://www.nukesofhazardblog.com/

- PONI (CSIS): http://csis.org/program/poni-debates-issues

- Strategic Security (FAS): http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/

Journals

- Arms Control Today: http://www.armscontrol.org/act

- Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists: http://www.thebulletin.org/

- Foreign Policy: http://www.foreignpolicy.com/

- International Security: http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/project/58/quarterly_journal.html

- The National Interest: http://www.nationalinterest.org/

- The Nonproliferation Review: http://www.cns.miis.edu/npr/index.htm

- Science & Global Security: http://www.princeton.edu/sgs/publications/sgs/archive/

- The Washington Quarterly: http://www.twq.com/

News sources

- Defense News: http://www.defensenews.com/

- Global Security Newswire: http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/

RESEARCH/ADVOCACY ORGANIZATIONS

Generally supportive of nuclear weapons reductions

- Arms Control Association: http://www.armscontrol.org/

- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: http://www.carnegieendowment.org/npp/

- Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation: http://www.armscontrolcenter.org/

- Center for Nonproliferation Studies: http://www.cns.miis.edu/

- Council for a Livable World: http://www.livableworld.org/

- Federation of American Scientists: http://www.fas.org/programs/ssp/nukes/index.html

- Institute for Science and International Security: http://www.isis-online.org/

- Stimson Center: http://www.stimson.org/nuke/programhome.cfm

- Union of Concerned Scientists: http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear_weapons_and_global_security/

Generally opposed to/skeptical about nuclear weapons reductions

- American Enterprise Institute: http://www.aei.org/ra/100001

- American Foreign Policy Council: http://www.afpc.org/

- Center for Security Policy: http://www.centerforsecuritypolicy.org/

- Heritage Foundation: http://www.heritage.org/research/nationalsecurity/

- Lexington Institute: http://www.lexingtoninstitute.org/defense

- National Institute for Public Policy: http://www.nipp.org/

- Potomac Institute: http://www.potomacinstitute.org/

Academic/organizationally neutral

- Brookings Institution: http://www.brookings.edu/foreign-policy.aspx

- Center for International Security and Cooperation (Stanford): http://cisac.stanford.edu/

- Center for International and Security Studies (Maryland): http://www.cissm.umd.edu/

- Council on Foreign Relations: http://www.cfr.org/

- CSIS: http://csis.org/category/topics/defense-and-security

- Belfer Center (Harvard): http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/project/3/managing_the_atom.html

- Nuclear Threat Initiative: http://www.nti.org/