Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation

“A New Way Forward: Rethinking U.S. Strategy in Afghanistan" Report

by Patricia M Morris [contact information]

The Afghan Study Group produced a report in April 2011, entitled A New Way Forward: Rethinking U.S. Strategy in Afghanistan that offers recommendations to the U.S. government and military and rationale for resolving the current civil war in Afghanistan by political means.

The U.S.’ longest war in history cannot be “won,” in the broadest sense of the word, militarily. The U.S. strategy has not worked, and, instead, the U.S. has become participants in an Afghan civil war, with no clear definition of “success.” The U.S. goal has changed from rooting out Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan to nation building, a task for which our military is not suited. Past attempts to centralize power in Afghanistan have failed. The U.S. cannot continue to fund this war and send U.S. troops to fight and die for something that is not essential to U.S. security or central to U.S. interests.

The current situation in Afghanistan demonstrates that Al-Qaeda has no significant presence, and the risk of Afghanistan becoming a safe haven for the terrorist group if the Taliban regain power should not be overstated. In many cases, the Karzai government appointees have proven more corrupt and ruthless than the Taliban. Meanwhile, the large U.S. presence fosters resentment, especially among Pashtuns, which aids Taliban recruiting.

This is not a conflict between the Karzai government and the Taliban or insurgents, but a much more complicated power struggle along ethnic, rural versus urban and sectarian lines, which the military cannot solve. A negotiated resolution is the best option because it will directly address this power struggle and reduce the opportunity for extremists to influence Afghanistan’s governance structures. The U.S. and allies will also be able to draw down their forces and a peacekeeping force could arrive to ensure basic security and protection of human rights (include women’s rights).

Recommendations for the U.S. government and military: 1. Emphasize power-sharing and political inclusion. The U.S. should fast-track a peace process designed to decentralize power and encourage a power-sharing balance among the principal parties. 2. Downsize and eventually end military operations in southern Afghanistan and reduce the U.S. military footprint. As defeating the Taliban will have little effect on Al-Qaeda’s global network, the U.S. should focus on counter-terrorism measures, diplomatic measures and drawdown of U.S. military from the wider Muslim world. 3. Encourage economic independence so Afghanistan does not become an incubator for terrorism, drug and human trafficking and other illicit activities. 4. Focus security efforts on Al Qaeda and domestic security. Reallocate some savings from the drawdown to bolster U.S. domestic security efforts and to track nuclear weapons globally. 5. Engage regional and global stakeholders in an effort to guarantee Afghan neutrality and foster regional stability. All neighboring states have a common interest in preventing Afghanistan being dominated by one political group or becoming a failed state.

The remainder of this report elaborates on the need to negotiate, keeping in mind U.S. national interests, the current failing strategy and the dismal Afghan future if the U.S. does not change its approach.

For a list of report signatories and endorses please click here.