Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation

Will the Senate Support New Nuclear Arms Reductions?

by John Isaacs [contact information]

by Kingston Reif [contact information]

Published in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists Online on June 23, 2009

Article summary below; read the full text online

President Barack Obama has an ambitious agenda on nuclear weapons issues that will take a long time to implement. For example, the earliest the Senate is likely to vote again on the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) is 2010. Likewise, a Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty is at least three years away. Ditto for the president's goal of safeguarding all vulnerable nuclear weapons and nuclear materials worldwide. And then there is his most ambitious goal of all--a nuclear-weapon-free world, which even he has suggested probably won't take place in his lifetime. The one major piece of Obama's arms control agenda that could be completed this year, however, is a follow-on agreement to START.

Already, Assistant Secretary of State Rose Gottemoeller and Anatoly Antonov, the head of Russia's Foreign Ministry Department for Security and Disarmament, have held several meetings to discuss and negotiate a new treaty, with more meetings scheduled for later this month. And when Obama and Medvedev meet in early July, they may begin to outline the actual framework of a START follow-on agreement.

Surprisingly, the negotiations also have received support from Republicans currently holding office--not exactly a group known for being in Obama's corner. For instance, Indiana Republican Sen. Richard Lugar, the ranking Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has been advocating for a new treaty for some time. And two weeks ago, Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain endorsed a new treaty on the Senate floor: "As the administration reviews its nuclear weapons posture, it should seek to reduce the size of our nuclear arsenal to the lowest number possible consistent with our security requirements and global commitments. This means a move, as rapidly as possible, to a significantly smaller force." Plus, since the 1990s, the Senate has displayed overwhelming bipartisan support for nuclear reduction treaties; the START agreement was approved 93-6 in 1992 and the Moscow Treaty, or SORT, was unanimously approved 95-0 in 2003.

The public also is supportive. A Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/Democracy Corps poll taken in May showed strong support for the president's nuclear weapons policies. Seventy percent of those surveyed agreed with the following statement: "While in Europe, President Obama announced that the United States would pursue new negotiations with Russia to reduce both countries' nuclear arsenals, a global ban on nuclear testing, and new efforts to stem the proliferation of nuclear materials and weapons." Only 15 percent of respondents opposed.

Although most Republican senators are holding their fire until they see a final product, some key Republicans already have begun raising concerns. And two other potential hurdles remain. One is completing the treaty in sufficient time for the Senate to consider it before START expires on December 5. (Lugar has warned that the treaty has to be completed and submitted to the Senate by the end of July to provide sufficient time for the Senate to take action before the deadline.) The second is lingering divisions between Senate Republicans and Democrats that arose in early votes on the economic stimulus package and the budget, divisions which may get increasingly bitter with major votes expected in coming months on health-care reform, climate legislation, and Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor.

While these divisions are unlikely to derail treaty ratification, most arms control experts agree that ratification with more than 67 votes will be necessary to build momentum for more controversial treaties to follow (e.g., the CTBT) that also will need 67 Senate votes.