Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation

Backgrounder on Obama-Medvedev July 2009 Moscow Summit

by John Isaacs [contact information]

by Kingston Reif [contact information]

Visit the Center’s START Resource Center, which contains dozens of up-to-date materials

July 2, 2009

From July 6 to 8, 2009, U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian Federation President Dmitry Medvedev will meet in Moscow for their first full summit. High on their agenda is the impending expiration of the landmark 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) and the ongoing negotiations to replace it with a new strategic arms reduction agreement. START expires on December 5, 2009.

START has greatly reduced the dangers posed by U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals. Under the Treaty, the United States and Russia cut their deployed nuclear arsenals from about 10,000 warheads at the end of the Cold War to fewer than 6,000 by December 2001. The agreement also limited each country to no more than 1,600 strategic delivery vehicles, the bombers and missiles used to deliver nuclear warheads.

In May 2002, under the Bush administration, the United States and Russia signed the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT), also known as the Moscow Treaty, which commits the two countries to reduce their deployed nuclear arsenals to between 1,700 and 2,200 warheads apiece by the end of 2012.

Unlike START, the Moscow Treaty did not impose limits on delivery vehicles or on how many strategic warheads the United States and Russia could keep in reserve. Nor did it contain any monitoring or verification provisions. Instead, the two sides agreed to rely on the START infrastructure to verify implementation and compliance under SORT.

START FOLLOW-ON PROCESS: STATE OF PLAY

On April 1, President Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev issued a joint statement committing both sides to pursue a “legally binding” follow-on to START I and to report on progress toward this goal by July.

On April 24, Assistant Secretary of State Rose Gottemoeller and Director of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Department of Security and Disarmament Anatoly Antonov held a preliminary meeting at the U.S. Embassy in Rome to discuss the organization of the START follow-on negotiations and “basic elements of a possible treaty.” Since then, Gottemoeller and Antonov have held several meetings to discuss and negotiate a new treaty.

BIPARTISAN SUPPORT FOR NUCLEAR REDUCTIONS

There is broad support, even among conservative Republicans, for reducing the size and role of nuclear weapons in U.S. and Russian national security policies. For example, the recently released report of the bipartisan Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States – which included several conservative Republicans – concluded: “The moment appears ripe for a renewal of arms control with Russia, and this bodes well for a continued reduction in the nuclear arsenal. The United States and Russia should pursue a step-by-step approach and take a modest first step to ensure that there is a successor to START I when it expires at the end of 2009.”

Republican Senators Richard Lugar (R-IN), the ranking Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and John McCain (R-AZ), the ranking Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, have both advocated a new Treaty.

WHAT TO EXPECT FROM THE MOSCOW SUMMIT

The two presidents will at a minimum announce the current status of the START follow-on talks. They may also use the occasion to outline the actual framework of a START follow-on agreement. However, a formal agreement is not likely to be completed until later this year.

In previous statements, Obama and Medvedev have made it clear that “the subject of the new agreement will be the reduction and limitation of strategic offensive arms.” The new agreement is expected to contain limits on both deployed warheads and delivery vehicles, with monitoring and verification provisions based on those of START (although some new variations could be introduced).

Given the limited time before START expires on December 5, this year the two countries are unlikely to seek major reductions in their strategic deployed arsenals. However, Obama and Medvedev could announce that they intend to begin negotiations on much deeper cuts in U.S. and Russia arsenals once the first follow-on agreement is completed.

WHY ARMS CONTROL IS IMPORTANT

The renewal of the arms control process is important for numerous reasons:

• The United States and Russia together possess some 20,000 nuclear weapons, about 95 percent of the world’s total. Designed for the Cold War, such massive arsenals do not help against current threats like terrorism. Today, more nuclear weapons mean more opportunities for accidents or theft.
• Though the United States and Russia have serious differences on several foreign policy issues, the formal arms control process can bring predictability and stability to U.S.-Russian relations and greatly limit the incentives for renewed strategic competition. Failure to pursue further reductions in strategic arsenals would make it more difficult to pursue other vital objectives central to U.S. and Russian security, including efforts to safeguard nuclear material stockpiles worldwide and to contain Iran’s nuclear program.
• Deeper nuclear reductions can reinforce the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Such demonstrations of good faith are essential for retaining the continued commitment of non-nuclear weapons states not to pursue nuclear arsenals.
• As Ronald Reagan said, “trust but verify.” START’s monitoring and verification provisions have provided each side with important information on the size and location of the other’s nuclear forces. Without such an infrastructure, neither side would be able to assure that the other was not attempting to retain a significant strategic advantage.