Congressional Staff Briefing - Pakistan and the Nuclear Supermarket: Assessing the Damage
June 6, 2004
On May 7, 2004, Ambassador Husain Haqqani, journalist and former diplomat from Pakistan, addressed a group of Congressional staff on the background of Pakistan’s nuclear program and the nuclear black market developed by A.Q. Khan. He discussed the context of the current black market and its origins in the 1970s, when Pakistan started its nuclear program with knowledge that Khan brought from Europe. Amb. Haqqani made the following points:- Pakistan’s defense budget is a one number line in its public budget, thus it is unknown how much money was spent to build its nuclear program.
- Pakistan developed an international market for all kinds of goods, which ultimately led to development of the nuclear black market.
- A.Q. Khan did not develop the market as an underground vigilante, but with the knowledge of the government. His scientific expertise was not his brilliance, but rather his business savvy and ability to establish a network. Buying materials on the black market meant he could also sell on the black market.
- Libya was the first customer of Khan’s designs, but ultimately did not have the capabilities to build a sophisticated program. Pakistan never anticipated that Libya would “out” Khan’s activities when it gave up its programs in December 2003.
- A sense of pity, according to Haqqani, played into Khan’s assistance to Iran, and deals with North Korea were a quid pro quo for the North’s missile technology.
For decades the United States has been concerned about Pakistan’s activity, but has largely ignored its diplomatic game-playing because Pakistan has allied with the United States at the right time, as in the current war on terror. Short term goals have blinded the United States to the long-term repercussions of Pakistan’s broken commitments, Haqqani observed.
Until the extent and history of the nuclear black market network is known, it will be impossible to break it down and destroy it. According to Haqqani, it most certainly continues to operate. Haqqani stated that military expenditures are driving Pakistan into poverty, and that this poverty will continue to force the country to engage in the nuclear black market for revenue. Haqqani voiced dismay that the United States continues to trust Pakistan and shows little interest in forcing Pakistan to change direction. His suggestions for how Pakistan’s behavior can be changed include:
- Treat the situation in Pakistan as a crisis and send the government a sharp rebuke;
- Adopt a good-cop, bad-cop strategy on the part of the U.S. executive branch and Congress respectively. The Congress must take more of an oversight role and strongly condemn Pakistan’s lies and deceit;
- Use economic aid as leverage, and do not strengthen the Pakistani Army any further;
- Use the physiological/political advantage that U.S. policy wields over Pakistan. The Army controls everything in Pakistan and must be made to understand the ways of the world;
- Visibly improve relations with India;
- Cooperate with China to apply pressure on Pakistan, similar to the role China is playing with North Korea;
- Help strengthen civil society in Pakistan and encourage its internal political debate to be about quality of life and not just security and nuclear weapons.
Haqqani concluded that there are not enough Americans, particularly Members of Congress, interested in what is happening in Pakistan and that the Administration does not provide the Congress with full disclosure of Pakistan’s activities. A wobbly Musharraf regime may be better than someone worse taking over in Pakistan, but the Congress should apply pressure for change on the proliferation front in the interest of national and international security.
Husain Haqqani, Pakistan, is a leading journalist, diplomat, and former advisor to Pakistani prime ministers. He is a syndicated columnist for The Indian Express and serves as chairman of Communications Research Strategies, a Pakistani consulting company. Haqqani’s journalism career includes work as East Asian correspondent for Arabia - The Islamic World Review and Pakistan and Afghanistan correspondent for the Far Eastern Economic Review. He contributes articles and commentary to numerous international publications and news networks. Haqqani has also served as an advisor to Pakistani prime ministers Ghulam Mustafa Jatoi, Nawaz Sharif, and Benazir Bhutto. From 1992 to 1993 he was Pakistan’s ambassador to Sri Lanka. He is currently at visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.