North Korea
North Korean leader Kim Jong-il before and after his stroke.
RECENT ANALYSIS
-
Aug 30, 2010
Obama: Additional Sanctions on North Korea -
Aug 25, 2010
Jimmy Carter to the Rescue... Again
Former President Jimmy Carter is in North Korea to secure the release of an American missionary sentenced to eight years of hard labor for illegal entry. The trip comes amid a North Korean nuclear impasse and heightened tensions on the Korean peninsula. Why was Carter chosen to go now and what can we expect from his visit? -
Aug 11, 2010
Another Squeeze
The U.S. will soon announce a fresh list of sanctions against North Korea to dry up the regime’s illegal cash sources that fund its nuclear weapons programs. Pyongyang is expected to unleash more provocations, even a third nuclear test, in retaliation as witnessed in the past. Still, the pressure track is expected to continue until the regime changes its behavior or until a leadership transition takes place in the North. - See more articles »
CENTER EXPERT
Duyeon Kim
Deputy Director of Nuclear Non-Proliferation
202-546-0795
dkim AT armscontrolcenter DOT org
Click here to read "Strengthening U.S. Security Through Non-Proliferation and Arms Control: Recommendations for the Obama Administration"
The North Korean threat comes in two forms: vertical (development of its nuclear capability) and horizontal (spread of nuclear know-how and technology to others). Pyongyang tested two nuclear devices and is believed to be working on a third. Experts say Pyongyang has enough fissile material for 5-12 nuclear weapons. The regime is also scrambling to develop its ballistic missile program, and the critical question is whether Pyongyang will be able to tip a missile with a nuclear warhead that can reach U.S. allies in the region or even the U.S. mainland. The regime also appears to be developing its ties with other actors bent on acquiring a nuclear capability, including those in the Middle East. Pyongyang walked away from the Six-Party Talks in 2008, but has recently expressed willingness to return to the table in an apparent move to shift the focus away from Cheonan, which it sank in March 2010 killing 46 South Korean sailors.
North Korea’s fundamental objective seems clear: regime survival and status as a nuclear power. Its latest provocations since its second nuclear test in May 2009 appear to be aimed at both domestic and international audiences amid reported preparations for a leadership succession. Pyongyang claims its nuclear programs are a deterrent against “hostile U.S. policy” and has long bargained to extract political and economic concessions for denuclearization.
The policy debate has always centered around whether Pyongyang’s nuclear stockpiles can be negotiated away. Some believe that the regime under Kim Jong-il will never surrender its nuclear arsenal while others believe Pyongyang will abandon them given the right price tag. The Obama administration appears to have settled on the first school of thought, opting to contain and manage the problem until the next North Korean leadership assumes power. Progress on the nuclear dilemma will only come from aggressive diplomacy and creative ideas that directly target the crux of denuclearization, or the irreversible removal of all fissile materials and explosive devices and the dismantlement of all proliferation-prone nuclear facilities.
ARTICLES & FACT SHEETS
Aug 25, 2010 Jimmy Carter to the Rescue, Again
Aug 11, 2010 Another Squeeze
Mar 3, 2009 Coordination and Realism on North Korea
Oct 6, 2008 Will Ill Kim Jong-Il Derail Disarmament?
Jul 28, 2008 North Korea: Hand-Wringing Over Success
TEXT OF NUCLEAR AGREEMENTS
1994 U.S.-North Korea Agreed Framework
2005 Six-Party Joint Statement
2007 February Six-Party Agreement
2007 October Six-Party Agreement
SANCTIONS
Obama: New Sanctions On North Korea (2010)
UN/U.S./EU Combined Sanctions List (July 2010)
UN Security Council Resolution 1874 (2009)
UN Security Council Resolution 1718 (2006)
U.S. Executive Order 13382 (2005)
ADDITIONAL READING
- Council on Foreign Relations, War Games on the Korean Peninsula, released July 26, 2010.
- Council on Foreign Relations, U.S. Policy Toward the Korean Peninsula, released June 2010.
- Congressional Research Service, "North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Development and Diplomacy," updated January 21, 2008.
- Congressional Research Service, "North Korea's Nuclear Weapons: Latest Developments," updated December 5, 2007.
- BBC timeline of key events in the North Korea nuclear stand-off.