North Korea
Resumption of the six-party talks (December 2006). AP photo.
RECENT ANALYSIS
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Mar 18, 2009
Past Time to Join the Landmine Treaty
This month marks the tenth anniversary of the entry into force of an international agreement that has prevented incalculable civilian deaths and injuries from war: the 1997 Landmine Treaty. While 156 countries have signed on, the United States is one of a small minority of states that has not yet agreed to join the ban on the production, use, sale, and stockpiling of anti-personnel landmines. -
Mar 3, 2009
Coordination and Realism on North Korea
New satellite images indicate that North Korea may be preparing to test launch a version of its Taepodong-2 ballistic missile. This worrisome state of affairs makes it clear that it will be harder to denuclearize North Korea today than it has ever been before, Lt. Gen. Robert Gard and Travis Sharp argue in this op-ed recently published in The Korea Times. -
Jan 15, 2009
Congress and National Security Under Bush: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly
As George W. Bush's time in office comes to an end, his administration is working overtime to put a positive spin on his legacy. In this new compilation, executive director John Isaacs considers the good, the bad, and the ugly over the last eight years. - See more articles »
CENTER EXPERT
Leonor Tomero
Director for Nuclear Non-Proliferation
202-546-0795 ext.2104
ltomero AT armscontrolcenter DOT org
Click here to read "Strengthening U.S. Security Through Non-Proliferation and Arms Control: Recommendations for the Obama Administration"
Experts presently believe that North Korea has produced enough fissile material for between 5 and 12 nuclear weapons. North Korea's detonation of a nuclear device on October 9, 2006 is widely considered to have been a technical failure and the country does not yet possess the ability to install nuclear warheads on ballistic missiles. Nonetheless, Pyongyang has declared itself a nuclear state, becoming the eighth country to do so.
North Korean actions often are enigmatic, but there is no reason to doubt that the regime's fundamental objective is national survival. North Korea will fully denuclearize only when it has obtained the political arrangements that guarantee its survival. These arrangements include formal diplomatic relations with the United States, a peace agreement that officially ends the Korean War, and integration into the global economy. If it does not achieve these objectives, North Korea will continue to use its nuclear program to extract concessions that at least will keep it alive awhile longer, even if not guaranteeing the regime's long-term survival.
To set realistic expectations about North Korea's nuclear program is to accept that complete and verifiable denuclearization will not happen today, and it will not happen tomorrow. Phased nuclear stockpile reductions by North Korea should be met by political, security, and economic incentives from the six parties. The hope should not be for an immediate change in the North's behavior, nor for regime change or collapse. The hope should be for a gradual opening of North Korea to the outside world. This steady transition from rogue nuclear state to international stakeholder should be pursued with the full understanding that there will be setbacks.
ARTICLES & FACT SHEETS
Mar 3, 2009 Coordination and Realism on North Korea
Oct 6, 2008 Will Ill Kim Jong-Il Derail Disarmament?
Jul 28, 2008 North Korea: Hand-Wringing Over Success
ADDITIONAL READING
- Full Text of the February 2007 Nuclear Agreement with North Korea.
- Full Text of October 2007 Nuclear Agreement with North Korea for "Second-Phase Actions."
- Congressional Research Service, "North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Development and Diplomacy," updated January 21, 2008.
- Congressional Research Service, "North Korea's Nuclear Weapons: Latest Developments," updated December 5, 2007.
- BBC timeline of key events in the North Korea nuclear stand-off.