Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation

Fact Sheet: North Korea Promotes 3 Key Diplomats

by Duyeon Kim [contact information]

North Korea announced on September 23, 2010 that it promoted three diplomats who have been key negotiators with the U.S. The Korea Central News Agency reported that the appointments were made under a decree of the Presidium of the Supreme People’s Assembly, or parliament. The promotions are an apparent move to strengthen the regime’s foreign policy, but views are mixed on the implications of these sudden and surprising moves. The announcement comes ahead of a rare Workers’ (Rodong) Party delegates conference on September 28th, the first of its kind in 44 years, which many North Korea watchers believe is part of preparations to hand over power from Kim Jong-il to his youngest son Kim Jong-un.

WHO?

KANG SOK-JU (71) – Cabinet Vice Premier

Vice Premier of North Korea's cabinet

• Promoted up two notches from former 24-year post of First Vice Foreign Minister
• Former chief nuclear envoy in negotiations with the U.S. on the 1994 Geneva Agreed Framework (freeze nuclear facilities in return for light-water reactors).
  

  o U.S. counterpart: Robert Gallucci, Ambassador at Large

• New role and scope of influence are unclear considering his background in U.S. negotiations
• Engineer of nuclear program development

KIM KYE-GWAN (67) – First Vice Foreign Minister

• Former Vice Foreign Minister, succeeds Kang Sok-ju
• Former chief nuclear negotiator to the Six-Party Talks: Signed the September 2005 Joint Statement, February 2007 and October 2007 six-party agreements (freeze, disable and dismantle nuclear facilities in return for economic/energy aid and security/diplomatic guarantees)
  

  o U.S. Counterpart: Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs James Kelly and Christopher Hill

• Believed to have won Kim Jong-il’s confidence: He was present in the meeting room during the 2007 Inter-Korean summit and directly explained the October 2007 six-party agreement to then South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun
• Former deputy nuclear envoy during the 1994 Geneva Agreement negotiations
• Former chief envoy to missile talks with the U.S. during the Clinton administration

RI YONG-HO (56) – Vice Foreign Minister

North Korea's Vice Foreign Minister (as of 9.23.2010)

• Former deputy nuclear negotiator to the Six-Party Talks since 2007, succeeds Kim Kye-gwan
• Unclear whether he will become the chief nuclear negotiator.
• Core member of North Korea’s negotiating team with the U.S. since 2003 on nuclear weapons, disarmament, missiles and human rights
• Former North Korean Ambassador to Britain, Belgium, Luxembourg, Ireland
• Accompanied former North Korean Foreign Minister Cho Myung-rok’s U.S. visit in October 2000
• Accompanied North Korean Foreign Minister Pak Ui-chun at the ASEAN Regional Forum in July 2010

IMPLICATIONS?

Promoting the North's heavyweights on U.S. policy to senior posts appears to be Pyongyang's way of strengthening its foreign policy. However, views among experts and analysts are mixed on the implications of the reshuffle, and it is always difficult to make definite conclusions about North Korea due to limited information and unpredictability. Still, here are some initial explanations that have surfaced so far based on knowledge accumulated after observing North Korean behavior over the years:

• North Korea may be trying to elicit a type of negotiations different from the Six-Party Talks considering the North's track record. After bilateral U.S.-North Korea talks led to the 1994 Geneva Agreement, Pyongyang’s chief negotiator changed from Kang Sok-ju to Kim Kye-gwan who then led the North in Six-Party Talks since 2003 while he was the Vice Foreign Minister. Now that post has been filled by Ri Yong-ho although it is unclear whether Ri is the new chief negotiator.
  
  -North Korea may also be vying for more leverage in future international negotiations.
• Some experts believe North Korea is extending the dialogue hand out to Washington and aims to improve bilateral relations, thus sending a positive sign for the resumption of Six-Party Talks.
  

  o OR: Others say North Korea may not be interested in talks with the U.S. in the near future since Pyongyang’s “go to” men in negotiations have now been elevated to a higher level. It is unclear whether they will continue to be the “face” of negotiations or whether their successors will assume such roles.

• Some analysts say North Korea may be trying to maintain stability in its domestic politics ahead of a leadership succession and amid icier ties with the U.S. after the Cheonan incident that led to joint U.S.-South Korean military drills at sea.
• Some experts believe that elevating Kang Sok-ju to Vice Premier may provide him with a more active role in foreign affairs and brings him to the forefront in future nuclear negotiations after having orchestrated foreign policy behind the scenes. It also raises him to an “equal level” with senior U.S. officials including Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, which would be critical if talks should ever materialize on issues like a peace regime.
  

  o OR: Others say Kang Sok-ju’s promotion paves the way for a new generation of leadership in the Foreign Ministry since his age may eventually limit his influence. So his role in foreign affairs may not be enhanced due to limitations in the role of Vice Premier, which deals more with domestic affairs.

• Some analysts say that elevating Kim Kye-gwan may put him at a more “equal level” with U.S. Special Representative for North Korea policy Stephen Bosworth, but it is unclear if Bosworth or Special Envoy for the Six-Party Talks Sung Kim will be the chief negotiator at the six-party talks.

DOES THE OBAMA ADMIN KNOW THEM?

Yes. There are a few high-level American officials currently in the Obama administration who have been on the U.S. team that negotiated and/or helped craft Washington's North Korea policy since the Clinton administration. They include:

• GARY SAMORE, Special Assistant to the President and National Security Council Coordinator for Arms Control and WMD, Proliferation and Terrorism
• DANIEL RUSSEL, National Security Council Director of Japan, South and North Korea, the Six-Party talks
• DANIEL PONEMAN, Deputy Secretary of Energy

(2010.9.23)
* The information in this article is from the author’s personal research.