Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation

Analysis of New U.N. Report on Iraq Security and Benchmarks

by Travis Sharp [contact information]

June 15, 2007

United Nations Security Council Resolution 1546 (2004) requires the U.N. Secretary-General to report to the Security Council on the situation in Iraq every three months. Secretary General Ban Ki Moon just issued his latest report on June 11, 2007. The report details the Iraq Government's progress towards meeting the 18 benchmarks laid out in the FY2007 Supplemental spending package signed into law by President Bush on May 25.

Language contained in the Supplemental also requires the President to submit a report to Congress on the status of the benchmarks no later than July 15, 2007, and to submit a second report no later than September 15, 2007. Prior to the September report, the U.S. Ambassador to Iraq (Ryan Crocker) and the Commander of the Multi-National Forces in Iraq (David Petraeus) must be made available to testify before Congress.

For more information on the recently passed FY2007 Supplemental, see the Center's analysis titled, Analysis of the FY 2007 Supplemental (H.R. 2206) Spending Package Signed by President Bush (P.L. 110-28).

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE U.N. REPORT

Security Situation in Iraq - The report states that, despite some "initial success of stepped-up security measures" that resulted in "a brief lull in the level of sectarian violence," "the situation in Iraq remains precarious" because "insurgent attacks persist and civilian casualties continue to mount" while militia forces are resuming their activities of "targeted killings and kidnappings." (para. 3) Geographically speaking, political tensions in Basra and Qadissya provinces have led to increased violence (para. 3) and the Baghdad security plan has forced insurgents out of the capital city and into the surrounding provinces of Diyala, Salah al Din, and Tamim. (para. 51)

The International Zone is still a dangerous place to live and work, with 17 attacks in March, 30 in April, and 39 through May 22. (para. 46) Indirect fire has killed 26 people in the International Zone since February 19 and the number of car bombings at entry checkpoints has increased. (ibid.)

Hydrocarbon Law - The draft hydrocarbon law approved by Iraq's Council of Ministers on February 27 has not yet been submitted to the Oil and Gas Committee of Parliament because annexes on the allocation of Iraqi oilfields are causing considerable controversy. Separate legislation is also being developed on revenue sharing, the structure of the Ministry of Oil, and the proposed establishment of an Iraq National Oil Company. (para. 7) Some members of Parliament believe that consideration of any hydrocarbon law should be postponed until agreements are made on reforming Iraq's constitution. (para. 8)

De-Baathification - There are currently two competing drafts of a de-Baathification law. The first, which originated in the Presidency Council and the Office of the Prime Minister, would provide a three-month period to challenge former Baathists on their actions during Saddam's reign, after which they would gain immunity and be eligible to receive their pension and gain employment in the public sector. Former Baathist military officers above the rank of major would not be eligible for reemployment but would receive their pensions. This version would also dissolve the De-Baathification Commission within six months and devolve more power to independent judges. (para. 9)

The second draft de-Baathification law, which originated with the chairman of the De-Baathification Commission Ahmad Chalabi, is currently under review by the Legal Committee and the details of its provisions will be released after it is marked up. (ibid.)

Constitutional Reform - After delaying delivery of its recommendations on constitutional reform until May 22, the Constitutional Review Committee reported on May 23 that it had reached a draft agreement that includes recommendations on the division of powers and the handling of oil revenues. For final passage, these draft recommendations will need to gain backing from a wide swath of Iraq's political leaders as well as win support through a possible referendum. Iraq's political leadership has yet to comment publicly on the Committee's recommendations.

The Committee requested a one-month extension for submission of its final draft so that it had more time to resolve ongoing disagreements over the status of Kirkuk and the powers of the Presidency. (para. 12)

SOURCE

United Nations Security Council, "Report of the Secretary-General pursuant to paragraph 30 of resolution 1546 (2004)," submitted June 5, 2007.