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IS THERE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE IRAN NUCLEAR TUNNEL? Eight rounds of talks to revive the Iran nuclear deal, known formally as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), are in the “final stages” and all hands are on deck. Research Analyst Samuel Hickey was quoted in a WhoWhatWhy article discussing the potential revival of the Iran nuclear deal. “The key benefit of the JCPOA is simply that it would allow the international community to determine if Iran were pursuing a nuclear bomb with enough time to be able to come up with a diplomatic solution, thus saving the lives that would come with a potential military confrontation.” Hickey also wrote a blog post arguing that China has taken a much more active role in the negotiations to revive the JCPOA precisely to avoid another crisis in the Middle East, which would be disastrous for its economic interests. While many fear that China’s increasing diplomatic involvement in the Middle East signals an intention to replace the U.S. as the next regional hegemon, Beijing’s current involvement in talks to revive the Iran nuclear deal illustrates the limits of its engagement.
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HIDDEN DANGERS OF THE UKRAINE CRISIS While the use of nuclear weapons in the crisis in Ukraine remains unlikely, there are two especially pernicious nuclear-related aspects of the Ukraine crisis that merit examination, writes Senior Policy Director John Erath in a blog post for Nukes of Hazard. First, there were nuclear weapons on what became Ukrainian territory when the Soviet Union was dissolved, which Ukraine gave up and returned to Moscow with the agreement that Russia would not use force or threaten to use force against Ukraine. Smaller nuclear states or those hoping to have nuclear weapons could see this as motivation not to give up their nuclear weapons. Second, he writes, Russia is using its nuclear weapons to “bully the world into accepting its policy of seeking to dominate the former Soviet space.” This has already proven prophetic, as Putin has once again begun rattling his nuclear saber. If Putin is allowed to get away with this sort of nuclear blackmail, he will have uncovered another use for nuclear weapons, making their control and eventual elimination even more difficult.
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MISSILE DEFENSE STUDY: NOT ‘EFFECTIVE AGAINST REALISTIC THREATS’ A new study conducted by the American Physical Society (APS) has concluded that “no missile defense system thus far developed has been shown to be effective against realistic ICBM [intercontinental ballistic missile] threats,” and an effective missile defense system is not likely to be developed in the next 15 years. Despite 65 years of effort and more than $350 billion spent, the technical challenges are so great that U.S. systems would not be effective against even a limited North Korean attack, much less an attack by either Russia or China. It is vital that our leaders do not make life-ending strategic decisions under the false impression that the United States is protected from enemy fire. Two of the members of the study committee are affiliated with the Center: National Advisory Board Member Frank von Hippel and the late Philip Coyle, a Senior Science Fellow and board Secretary.
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WHAT ELSE A Minor Step with Major Benefits, by Senior Policy Director John Erath North Korea is testing hypersonic weapons. Should the West be worried? featuring a quote from Executive Director John TierneyNuclear nations should pledge more than ‘cheap’ talk, Hiroshima survivor says, featuring a quote from Senior Policy Director John Erath China, Russia advancing hypersonic weapons raises concerns at Pentagon, featuring a quote from Senior Policy Director John Erath
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MAKE A GIFT FROM YOUR IRA TODAY Did you know: if you are 72 or older, you can donate a portion of the required minimum distribution (RMD) from your IRA to the Center and reduce your taxable income? For more information on beneficial-to-you ways to make a gift to the Center this giving season, email Development Director Robbi Woodson.
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