Front and Center: June 16, 2024

PUSHING BACK AGAINST THE SENTINEL MISSILE SYSTEM

In recent weeks, we have been highlighting the costs and risks associated with the Sentinel missile. Although a long-planned element of U.S. nuclear modernization, vast cost overruns have raised serious issues as to Sentinel’s viability. The bicameral congressional Nuclear Weapons and Arms Control Working Group hosted a press conference on June 4 opposing the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) program. Executive Director John Tierney spoke at the press conference to express his dismay that so many in Congress are quick to simply rubberstamp multi-billion-dollar programs without asking even the most basic of questions.

Tierney also published an op-ed in Newsweek on the topic.

“A 37 percent increase for an already costly program cannot simply be glossed over when building a responsible budget, despite the alleged national security implications,” he writes. “Imagine the reaction to this level of overrun in a different industry. We cannot set the precedent that this kind of increase is normal and should not be questioned extensively.”

A public hearing is planned for late July to further highlight the issues with the Sentinel and push back on the lack of basic questions being asked by Congress.

TENSIONS ALONG KOREAN BORDER INCREASE AS NORTH KOREA CONTINUES NUCLEAR DRILLS

On May 31, North Korea unsuccessfully launched its second military spy satellite. The North launched the rocket mere hours after a trilateral diplomatic summit between South Korea, Japan and China began. It is unclear which rocket platform the North used to launch the satellite, but the official Korean Central News Agency reported that it failed due to a first-stage motor malfunction, not dissimilar to the failures of the North’s first two attempts to place its spy satellite in orbit. In late May, the Defense Intelligence Agency also confirmed the discovery of North Korean missile debris in Ukraine, making it clear that Russia has been using ballistic missile stocks of North Korean origin to prosecute its war.

Meanwhile, tensions with South Korea were exacerbated after the North sent hundreds of balloons carrying trash and manure across the border to several Southern locations in response to leafletting by South Korean organizations. The South responded by promising “unbearable” retaliation and subsequently fully suspending the 2018 inter-Korean agreement aimed at reducing tensions along the shared border. Seoul has also responded in kind by flying balloons carrying South Korean news and cultural information into the North and said it will resume anti-North Korean loudspeaker broadcasts along border areas. Amid the escalating rhetoric, North Korea also continued preemptive-strike military drills in recent weeks by demonstrating battlefield use of nuclear-capable multiple rocket launchers. Concerningly, in recent days, an apparent inadvertent crossing of the demilitarized zone by roughly two dozen DPRK soldiers resulted in several warning shots being fired by South Korean border guards.

IRAN CONTINUES VIOLATIONS WHILE MAINTAINING CLAIMS OF PEACEFUL USE AHEAD OF NEW PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

On June 5, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported ongoing significant violations by Iran, including non-cooperation in addressing unresolved issues about nuclear materials at undeclared sites. Despite previous resolutions urging Iran to fulfill its obligations, Tehran has failed to provide necessary information to allow the IAEA to verify Iran’s nuclear declarations. The IAEA highlighted that Iran is enriching uranium to 60% at its underground Fordow facility.

In response to these developments, France, Germany, and the UK tabled a resolution at the IAEA Board of Governors meeting on June 5. This resolution aimed to address Iran’s lack of transparency and cooperation. The United States supported the resolution ahead of the upcoming October 2025 deadline when the “snap back” mechanism to reinstate sanctions could be activated. Iran condemned the IAEA resolution, labeling it “hasty and unwise” and warning that such actions could undermine diplomatic efforts. Tehran criticized the IAEA for allegedly succumbing to political pressures and reaffirmed its stance that its nuclear activities are for strictly peaceful purposes. Meanwhile, Iran will hold its presidential election June 28 following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi May 19.

INDIA EXPANDS NUCLEAR SUBMARINE FLEET, HINTS AT REVISING LONGSTANDING NUCLEAR POLICY

Recent reporting suggests that India is actively constructing a submarine base in the Bay of Bengal to house its planned fleet of ballistic missile submarines and the state is expected to commission its second one, the INS Arighat, by the end of the year. All in all, India plans to construct four ballistic missile submarines to flush out its sea-based deterrent.

Meanwhile, India is also actively exploring further civil nuclear cooperation with Russia, in possible violation of the latter’s Nuclear Suppliers Group commitments. In the political arena, in the run-up to his reelection to a third term as Prime Minister earlier this month, Narendra Modi had been vocal about India’s concerns in relation to Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities and the need to strengthen Indian deterrence. India’s longstanding No First Use policy has also come under scrutiny in recent days, with Defense Minister Rajnath Singh hinting at a potential revision to a more flexible approach in light of changing geopolitical dynamics.

HOUSE PASSES DEFENSE AUTHORIZATION ACT MOSTLY ALONG PARTY LINES; SENATE VERSION IN COMMITTEE

The House considered H.R. 8070, its version of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) this week. The bill ultimately passed mostly along party lines 217-199.

We have posted our analysis of the legislation, as passed by the House Armed Services Committee. Many amendments, including requesting more information from the Navy on the operational implications of the nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile, further probing the Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) program and increasing funding for nuclear non-proliferation instead of weapons programs, were included in the committee-passed version.

Unfortunately, other amendments were not adopted, like ones striking the requirement for the United States to maintain 400 deployed ICBMs, pausing funding for the Sentinel ICBM program until the program has been reviewed and restructured to address massive cost overruns, and changing the timeline on expanded plutonium pit production to allow for more realistic program milestones.

Meanwhile, the Senate Armed Services Committee considered its version of the NDAA this week. The Senate, unlike the House, conducted its business behind closed doors, giving the public little insight into debate on important issues, such as nuclear weapons policy. Center analysis of the nuclear provisions of the bill is forthcoming.

NEW ON THE CENTER WEBSITE: HOUSE OF THE DRAGON, DIRECTED ENERGY FACT SHEET, DEFENSE SPENDING VS. DIPLOMACY SPENDING

House of WMD — Season 2: Team Black vs. Team Green: Senior Policy Director John Erath wants all fans of HBO’s House of the Dragon — in which dragons are a metaphor for nuclear weapons — to be on “Team Green” ahead of the Season 2 premier June 16, for one clear reason: Team Black is basing its war strategy on the use of weapons of mass destruction rather than deterrence.

What if there were no diplomatic solution? Senior Policy John Erath with help from intern Sarah Kirchner-Barney argues that current U.S. spending shows how much Congress favors military solutions to diplomatic ones, but it doesn’t have to. “Congressional leaders should understand that adequate funding for diplomacy goes hand in hand with the concept of a strong national defense. Resolving international crises without requiring military force would allow the military to focus on the major challenges to national security.”

Fact sheet: Directed Energy Weapons: Directed energy weapons use focused electromagnetic energy to engage and neutralize threats by disabling or degrading electronic systems. They offer a range of effects from nonlethal to lethal and can precisely target materials from metals to electronics without causing traditional explosive destruction. But despite their potential, directed energy weapons face challenges and don’t represent a practical defense against strategic missile threats such as ICBMs.