Senior Policy Director John Erath spoke with Newsweek about changes to Russian nuclear doctrine.
John Erath, senior policy director at the nonprofit Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, said that he believes Putin has already been using nuclear weapons as “instruments of diplomacy through threats and blackmail to limit the military assistance that is going from NATO countries to Ukraine. This has been a fairly successful policy as it has led a number of governments, including most especially the U.S, to self-limit what they have provided to Ukraine over the last two years or more.”
Regarding a possible launch of nuclear weapons by Russia on Ukraine, he said: “I don’t think that the possibility that they would use a nuclear weapon in that way is much greater than it has been and it’s always been small for several reasons. First and most obvious is that it’s difficult to see what they would hope to accomplish through the use of a nuclear weapon. They’re able to hit targets throughout Ukraine and cause widespread destruction and lots of civilian casualties.”
“It doesn’t make sense to use a weapon that leaves a lot of residual radiation on territory you want to occupy and in proximity to your own troops. So militarily, there’s little reason to use a nuclear weapon. If there’s a danger that one might be used, it would be as more of a demonstration of Russian willingness to continue to escalate. The Russians want everybody to know that they are prepared to use levels of violence that everyone else would consider unacceptable in order to impose their will on Ukraine.”
Regarding Russia’s next steps, if they do not contain launching nuclear weapons, Erath said, “It’s very clear. They’ve been running the same playbook for over two years. They’re going to continue to escalate the threats, they’re going to continue to see what creates an impression and if it’s the use of a so-called hypersonic weapon, then they will continue to do that.”
He continued, “There’s nothing really new about the weapon that the Russians may have used. They have highly capable long range ballistic missiles and have had them for years. This one [the Oreshnisk missile used on Dnipro] might in some ways be a little better or it might not. We don’t know. It’s experimental. But they it was intended to send a message that they are prepared to use new weapons, and that the war is not winnable for Ukraine. That’s the impression they want to create.”
Erath added that if Russia were to fire nuclear weapons at Ukraine, he believes it would have done so before. Read more
