As anticipated by many, it was reported this weekend that Russia has decided to cancel its controversial sale of the S-300 PMU1 air defense system to Iran. According to Russian Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Andrei Denisov, the cancelation was a result of the restrictive measures contained in UN Security Council Resolution 1929 –though its not clear if the Resolution would actually prohibit the sale. The news marks the apparent end of a years long saga in which Russia ostensibly delayed delivery on a number of occasions due to ‘technical reasons’ – but perhaps more realistically as a result of pressure from Israel and the U.S. As a result, this news represents an Israeli and U.S diplomatic success and illustrates a possibly increasing distance between the once close Iran and Russia…
The S-300 PMU-1 is one of the most advanced surface-to-air missile systems in the world, capable of engaging up to six targets simultaneously up to 90 km away. Given the capabilities of the system, it was always easy to see why countries like Israel and the U.S were opposed to the sale. Indeed, by installing S-300 missile batteries close to its nuclear facilities, Iran could have made it a lot harder for an enemy to successfully destroy its nuclear program from the air. Naturally, this would not be in the interests of either Israel or the U.S in the event that they felt they had to use military force…
Looking back, perhaps Russia did initially plan on delivering the missile system to Iran – but was waiting for a politically feasible moment to do so. However, that moment never came, as Iran has faced growing international scrutiny and pressure over its nuclear program since the deal was signed in 2005. In addition, relations between Russia and the U.S continue to improve following their ‘reset’, thanks in large part to the Obama administration’s tireless outreach and diplomatic work. Thus, transferring the system to Tehran seemingly became so politically intolerable that Moscow had no choice but to abandon the sale.
The wording of Resolution 1929 backs up the idea that Russia made a political, not legal, decision to cancel the S-300 contract. While the Resolution states that…
‘all States shall prevent the direct or indirect supply, sale or transfer to Iran, from or through their territories or by their nationals or individuals subject to their jurisdiction, or using their flag vessels or aircraft, and whether or not originating in their territories, of any […] missiles or missile systems as defined for the purpose of the United Nations Register of Conventional Arms’
…it is important to acknowledge that it defines missiles according to the United Nations Register of Conventional Arms, which explicitly ‘Does not include ground-to-air missiles.’ Clearly then, Moscow made the decision to thus read 1929’s call for States to ‘exercise vigilance and restraint over the supply, sale, transfer, provision, manufacture and use of all other arms and related materiel’ as a de facto legal obligation, rather than point to loopholes which would allow it to proceed with the sale.
So while Iran won’t get its hands on the illusive S-300, it appears that it has already started work an indigenous alternative – and there is always the possibility it might buy a system from China too. This news also suggests a Russia working ever closer with the United States, and an Iran that is further isolated. The Obama administration’s policy of engagement and multilateralism backed up by the threat of tougher measures has isolated Iran and strengthened the U.S. ability to secure international support to put additional pressure on Iran.
Above all, though it remains clear that diplomacy must prevail, for a unilateral strike on Iran’s program – with or without air defenses – will no doubt have extremely destabilizing effects for all in the region, and beyond.
