Last week, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its annual ”Options for Reducing the Deficit” report outlining 103 options to reduce the budget deficit between FY 2014 and FY 2023. Of specific interest to us, the report identifies potential savings in the submarine and bomber legs of the US nuclear triad; the ternary strategy of nuclear delivery systems that includes intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM) and long-range strike bombers (LRS-B).
Individually, the bomber option would save $32 billion between FY 2014 and FY 2023 while the submarine option would save $16 billion between FY 2015 and FY 2023. Amazingly, neither option would eliminate either leg of the nuclear triad. Below are summaries of the two options:
Bomber Option: Postpone the development of the new Long-Range Strike Bomber (LRS-B). The Air Force currently possesses 76 B52-Hs, 63 B1-Bs and 20 B2-As for a total fleet size of 159 long-range strategic bombers. The service is planning to replace this aging fleet with 80-100 new long-range strike bombers beginning in the middle of the next decade to the tune of an estimated total procurement cost of $55 billion. The CBO option would defer development of the new bomber until after FY 2023. This would save $32 billion between FY 2014 and FY 2023.
Option advantages identified by the CBO:
1. The $32 billion in savings could be spent on maintaining quality and readiness, which the Air Force claims is suffering from a lack of funding.
2. The delay could potentially allow the Air Force to incorporate newer technologies into the aircraft design that do not currently exist. This would likely improve the lifespan of the aircraft in future years.
Option disadvantages identified by the CBO:
1. There is a risk that the current generation of bombers may need to be retired earlier than expected and/or that the new LSR-B may take longer to develop than expected. If either scenario occurs, the US may be left without an adequate long-range strike capability.
2. The existing bomber fleet consists of only 20 stealth aircraft, the B-2As. As air defense systems become more advanced, the need for long-range stealth aircraft increases. Going forward, such a small fleet of stealth aircraft may not suffice.
3. As the US re-balances to East Asia, a region marked by limited basing options and long distances, the existing LRS-B capability may be inadequate.
Submarine Option: Cut the number of existing Ohio-class submarines in addition to deferring the development of and reducing the total order of the new Ohio-replacement submarines. At present, the Navy maintains a fleet of 14 Ohio-class nuclear-armed submarines (designation SSBN). The Navy currently plans to replace this fleet with 12 new nuclear-armed submarines (designation SSBN(X)) by 2042. The CBO option would reduce the existing SSBN fleet from 14 to 8 by FY 2020, defer the start of the SSBN(X) program from FY 2021 to FY 2024, and reduce the total order of SSBN(X) submarines from 12 to 8. Implementation of this option would save just under $16 billion between FY 2015 and FY 2023.
Option advantages identified by the CBO:
1. The sea leg of the US strategic deterrent would remain credible and robust. Each of the 8 submarines (of either class) can carry 128 warheads deployed across 16 missiles (8 warheads per missile). This would total 1,024 deployed nuclear warheads in the sea-leg of the nuclear triad alone, allowing the United State’s to maintain the New START limit of 1,550 deployed strategic warheads.
2. Costs accrued from modernizing the missiles and warheads that these submarines carry would potentially be reduced. Because there are fewer submarines in the fleet, fewer missiles and warheads will require modernization at the end of their life span.
Option disadvantages identified by the CBO:
1. The submarine leg of the nuclear triad would be less effective. Fewer submarines would mean that fewer areas could be patrolled and that a smaller fleet would be available for deployment in a crisis.
2. Each submarine would be easier to target. Because each submarine would have to fire more ballistic missiles in order to hit the same amount of targets that a fleet of 12 submarines could, more trajectories could be used by an adversary to accurately calculate the origin of the launches.
3. Delaying development of the SSBN(X) would disrupt the joint UK-US development of a common missile compartment, which the UK requires for its own fleet of strategic nuclear-armed submarines.
The Pentagon will hopefully give these options some serious consideration. If across-the-board sequester cuts remain in place, $454 billion will have to be cut from the Pentagon budget between now and FY 2021. The two CBO options won’t cover all of these required savings, but they sure would help.
