by Duyeon Kim 2012 Nuclear Security Summit: The Korean Twist Duyeon Kim June 2011 WORKING PAPER Participating States have begun putting their mark on a draft Seoul Communique this month for the March 2012 Nuclear Security Summit aimed at securing all vulnerable nuclear materials around the world. On the invitation list are 46 states and […]
U.S. Food Aid to North Korea?
Much attention is on the U.S. and South Korea that they may resume food aid to North Korea as UN food agencies prepare to release a report this week. Questions have already been raised as to whether it will help warm diplomatic ties that would then lead to an eventual resumption of diplomatic dialogue over Pyongyang’s nuclear programs.
The U.S. and North Korea are said to be planning a meeting next month to discuss a possible resumption of rice to the North. The meeting is said to be aimed at discussing the conditions required before Washington makes a decision on feeding the North after massive food aid was halted in 2008. Such conditions include proper monitoring mechanisms to ensure that the rice would reach those in need and not to the North’s military.
The World Food Programme is expected to release a report on Friday, March 25th in Rome on the North’s food situation. Some North Korea watchers suspect Washington will eventually send food shipments in the name of humanitarian aid, but the question is how much.
Some critics even say it is a U.S. attempt to pay the North for a resumption of diplomatic dialogue, but Washington officials have consistently reiterated that they will not pay for talks.
Until now, the U.S. has refrained from sending food aid to the North after apparently having assessed the hunger situation as far less serious than that of previous years, and suspecting Pyongyang’s intentions. Many believe the North’s plea to the international community for food and citation of its economic woes are an attempt to stock up on massive gifts for its people next year. 2012 is when Pyongyang claims the doors will open to becoming a “mighty and prosperous nation” and is also the 100th birthday of the regime’s late founder, Kim Il-sung.
South Korea is also reportedly considering the continuation of food assistance but in the form of “branded food” including corn, beans, and vitamins, which are perishable and cannot be stored for long periods of time like rice. North Korea has constantly been scrutinized for siphoning off rice aid to feed its military and not the hungry. One senior Seoul official has called the potential branded food provisions “smart aid” to be delivered to babies, children and the malnourished. Seoul had halted aid to the North after the sinking of the Cheonan naval corvette and shelling of Yeonpyeong Island last year.
Fukushima and the 2012 Nuclear Security Summit
I wrote an op-ed for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists on March 18th on the implications of the Fukushima nuclear disaster for the 2012 Nuclear Security Summit. It can be found here.
There are two op-eds worth reading written by the Center’s Board members:
Frank von Hippel at Princeton University wrote in the New York Times on March 23rd on the need to learn from the Fukushima disaster and reduce dangers around the world. He writes, “We therefore must make existing reactors safer, develop a new generation of safer designs and prevent nuclear power from facilitating nuclear proliferation. As tragic as the Fukushima disaster has been, it has provided a rare opportunity to advance those goals.”
Matthew Bunn at Harvard University wrote in the Washington Post on March 23rd on ways to reduce a Fukushima-like disaster elsewhere. He writes, “Ultimately, regular independent, international reviews should be the norm in nuclear operations worldwide. All countries must demonstrate that they are doing everything practicable to prevent the next Fukushima — or something far worse.”
Quote of the Day – Congressman Making Puns Edition
“The question is what was he thinking?….Did anybody tell Samore he should say less?” Representative Rick Larsen (D-WA), March 3, 2010. Larsen was responding to comments made by White House coordinator for arms control and weapons of mass destruction,…
Egypt’s Success, North Korea’s Distress
The Egyptian revolution has raised hopes of democracy in the region and beyond. But North Korea is a different story. Click here for the full story or click read more below.
North Korean leader Kim Jong-il may have woken up on his 70th birthday with crossed brows rather than a smile.
February 16th actually could be the first of a two-year celebration since he is either 69 or 70-years-old depending on the calculator. Still, the 70th birthday is a very special one in Korea though his are always commemorated with lavish birthday gifts and festivities.
But this year, Kim has woken up to a mix of unhappy birthday presents no 70-year-old dictator would want to accept: South Korean headlines that continue to paint a bleak picture for his health and regime; uncertainty over U.S. food aid to the North; an unstable health; urgent need to fast-forward his son Jong-un’s grooming process; unsuccessful inter-Korean military talks ending with no rice aid; and a struggling economy.
Perhaps most concerning is waking up to the reality that yet another fellow dictator and long-time friend Hosni Mubarak has been toppled by the Egyptian people. Romania, Iraq, Tunisia and now Egypt. One by one, his comrades have fallen.
Kim might have even asked himself, “Could this be my fate one day?”
But his conscience may have immediately answered, “Never!” with another pound of the iron fist.
While the world could not escape the images of Egyptian protests and democracy taking wind in the Middle East, North Koreans were oblivious of the historic moment. State media naturally blacked out the Egyptian revolution, and instead claimed America’s latest headache is smartphones used by U.S. prison inmates to smuggle drugs and weapons.
The regime’s iron curtain has its pores and information reportedly disseminates from the growing popularity of banned South Korean dramas, those sneaking in and out of China, and the expanding number of smuggled mobile phones from China as well as increasing shipments of legitimate mobile phones serviced by Egypt’s Orascom Telecom.
As South Koreans watched Egyptians overthrow their 30-year dictator, the first thought in their minds was, “When will it be North Korea’s turn?” North Korean defectors watched with envy.
There has been news of unhappy North Koreans. Add that to doubts over Kim’s health and one could hope the scale would tip toward homegrown social instability and uproar.
The cruel reality, however, is that North Korea’s turn is unlikely to come any time soon. “Bottom-up” is not a concept that can easily be applied to the North. The fundamental constraint to any civilian protest is the sheer fact that the regime maintains a strict system of absolute power, oppression, monitoring, isolation and gulags.
The North Korean people do not have the power to assemble. Most do not have contact with the outside world. While North Koreans minus the elite are hungry and malnourished, they still worship their Dear Leader and are severely patriotic. Reports may be true that some members of the military and political crème de la crème are unhappy, but they will continue to bask in the glory and goodies of elite-hood as long as they remain loyal.
As grim as the current picture may be for Kim Jong-il, it also gives him more incentive to up the ante and strengthen internal solidarity.
Kim may see an opportune time to unleash more provocations when Seoul and Washington convene their annual Key Resolve/Foal Eagle military exercise on February 28th. Military officials say the drills will go beyond defeating a conventional attack, and will reportedly include responding to an all-out war and contingency scenarios such as the death of Kim Jong-il and a crisis during a transfer of power. The exercise may also involve a U.S. aircraft carrier while intensifying their training to search and destroy North Korean weapons of mass destruction.
Pyongyang believes the joint exercises are aimed at toppling the Kim regime, and it has often threatened grave consequences should the drills proceed. As has been the case in the past, the United Nations Command has informed the North of the upcoming exercise date explaining that they are defensive in nature.
The future course of the Korean peninsula is unclear. But what is clear is that Pyongyang will engage in more provocations given the right time and political incentive. What’s clear is that tensions must be reduced. What’s clear is that the international community still needs to feed information to the North Korean people. What’s clear is that a North Korea with nuclear weapons is destabilizing to the region and the world. What’s clear is that solving North Korea will shake the nuclear black market. What is clear is that active diplomacy must persist.