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Egypt’s Success, North Korea’s Distress

The Egyptian revolution has raised hopes of democracy in the region and beyond. But North Korea is a different story. Click here for the full story or click read more below.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il may have woken up on his 70th birthday with crossed brows rather than a smile.

February 16th actually could be the first of a two-year celebration since he is either 69 or 70-years-old depending on the calculator. Still, the 70th birthday is a very special one in Korea though his are always commemorated with lavish birthday gifts and festivities.

But this year, Kim has woken up to a mix of unhappy birthday presents no 70-year-old dictator would want to accept: South Korean headlines that continue to paint a bleak picture for his health and regime; uncertainty over U.S. food aid to the North; an unstable health; urgent need to fast-forward his son Jong-un’s grooming process; unsuccessful inter-Korean military talks ending with no rice aid; and a struggling economy.

Perhaps most concerning is waking up to the reality that yet another fellow dictator and long-time friend Hosni Mubarak has been toppled by the Egyptian people. Romania, Iraq, Tunisia and now Egypt. One by one, his comrades have fallen.

Kim might have even asked himself, “Could this be my fate one day?”
But his conscience may have immediately answered, “Never!” with another pound of the iron fist.

While the world could not escape the images of Egyptian protests and democracy taking wind in the Middle East, North Koreans were oblivious of the historic moment. State media naturally blacked out the Egyptian revolution, and instead claimed America’s latest headache is smartphones used by U.S. prison inmates to smuggle drugs and weapons.

The regime’s iron curtain has its pores and information reportedly disseminates from the growing popularity of banned South Korean dramas, those sneaking in and out of China, and the expanding number of smuggled mobile phones from China as well as increasing shipments of legitimate mobile phones serviced by Egypt’s Orascom Telecom.

As South Koreans watched Egyptians overthrow their 30-year dictator, the first thought in their minds was, “When will it be North Korea’s turn?” North Korean defectors watched with envy.

There has been news of unhappy North Koreans. Add that to doubts over Kim’s health and one could hope the scale would tip toward homegrown social instability and uproar.

The cruel reality, however, is that North Korea’s turn is unlikely to come any time soon. “Bottom-up” is not a concept that can easily be applied to the North. The fundamental constraint to any civilian protest is the sheer fact that the regime maintains a strict system of absolute power, oppression, monitoring, isolation and gulags.

The North Korean people do not have the power to assemble. Most do not have contact with the outside world. While North Koreans minus the elite are hungry and malnourished, they still worship their Dear Leader and are severely patriotic. Reports may be true that some members of the military and political crème de la crème are unhappy, but they will continue to bask in the glory and goodies of elite-hood as long as they remain loyal.

As grim as the current picture may be for Kim Jong-il, it also gives him more incentive to up the ante and strengthen internal solidarity.

Kim may see an opportune time to unleash more provocations when Seoul and Washington convene their annual Key Resolve/Foal Eagle military exercise on February 28th. Military officials say the drills will go beyond defeating a conventional attack, and will reportedly include responding to an all-out war and contingency scenarios such as the death of Kim Jong-il and a crisis during a transfer of power. The exercise may also involve a U.S. aircraft carrier while intensifying their training to search and destroy North Korean weapons of mass destruction.

Pyongyang believes the joint exercises are aimed at toppling the Kim regime, and it has often threatened grave consequences should the drills proceed. As has been the case in the past, the United Nations Command has informed the North of the upcoming exercise date explaining that they are defensive in nature.

The future course of the Korean peninsula is unclear. But what is clear is that Pyongyang will engage in more provocations given the right time and political incentive. What’s clear is that tensions must be reduced. What’s clear is that the international community still needs to feed information to the North Korean people. What’s clear is that a North Korea with nuclear weapons is destabilizing to the region and the world. What’s clear is that solving North Korea will shake the nuclear black market. What is clear is that active diplomacy must persist.

Pakistan rapidly increasing arsenal, still says no to FMCT

Last week the public learned a few new things about Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. The size of its deployed stockpile is now estimated to be more than 100 weapons.  It also is believed to possess the nuclear material for somewhere between 40-100 additional weapons, a capability which could make Pakistan the 4th or 5th largest nuclear weapon state – surpassing both France and the United Kingdom .

As David Sanger and Eric Schmitt pointed out in the New York Times and Karen DeYoung in the above article in the Washington Post—Pakistan’s nuclear-lust is a challenge to the twin goals of prohibiting the production of fissile material for weapons purposes and reducing nuclear stockpiles globally.

Pakistan is the only country publically opposing the beginning of negotiations on a Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty (FMCT) in the 65-nation UN Conference of Disarmament (CD). Their chief concern is India and the disparity between the two country’s arsenals. Even though, the latest estimates suggest that Pakistan may have more weapons than India. New Delhi does have the capacity to produce more weapons due to a larger fissile material stockpile.  

Clearly Pakistan has more than enough weapons and material to deter any potential nuclear threat from India. But, as Daryl Kimball stated in the October 2010 edition of Arms Control Today, “Pakistan’s concerns about an FMCT likely will not be alleviated as long as India’s production potential remains greater.” Note production potential. It is negligible that Pakistan has more weapons now. India can, at any time, increase the size of its arsenal and Pakistan sees that potential as a threat–even more so now because of the U.S.-India nuclear deal, which could give India even more added potential to produce bombs.

Most observers are in agreement that this will not be an easy task. Still, there is a lot that can be done to lay the groundwork for future negotiations and to put added pressure on Pakistan to change its thinking.  Kimball laid out some of the options in the Arms Control piece above.  So long as Pakistan and India continue their quest to build more bombs, it is only a matter of time before a FMCT will have to be pursued outside the auspices of the Conference on Disarmament.

Day 1: Inter-Korean Preparatory Military Talks

Nothing much has happened on Day 1 of inter-Korean working-level military talks, but I thought I might update everyone on what’s happened so far: – The talks are being held on the South Korean side of the border truce village of Panmunjeom among colo…

South-North Korea Military Dialogue Soon?

South Korea has reportedly accepted North Korea’s proposal for high-level military talks. Pyongyang’s proposal came on Thursday immediately following U.S. President Barack Obama and Chinese President Hu Jintao’s Wednesday summit, which called for the resumption of inter-Korean dialogue and denuclearization. So it appears there was prior coordination between Beijing and Pyongyang ahead of the U.S.-China summit. It also appears preparatory cross-border talks at the working-level could commence in early February. However, the two Koreas are in for some very tough discussions, and the results of the preparatory meeting will determine whether and when formal military talks take place.

It would be the first time in about three months since the two Koreas held military discussions. Last September, Pyongyang was unwilling to discuss the sinking of the Cheonan ship and the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island.

This time, Seoul’s Unification Ministry says Pyongyang proposed discussing the sinking of the South’s Cheonan ship and artillery attacks on Yeonpyeong Island.

Why the sudden seemingly conciliatory gesture? (Click “read more”).

It’s hard to know for sure, but it cannot be easily ruled out that there may be a hidden agenda behind their outward show.

Seoul, Washington and Tokyo’s conditions for the resumption of the Six Party Talks are inter-Korean dialogue to address Korean tensions and a sincere gesture to denuclearize:

1. Inter-Korean dialogue & Pyongyang’s proposal on agenda:
It does not seem likely that North Korea would easily apologize for its two attacks, and it may try to steer the focus toward establishing a special peace zone in the West Sea as agreed upon during the October 2007 Inter-Korean summit. Pyongyang may also be using the cross-border meeting as a mere show hoping to jump on the fast-track toward direct talks with Washington.

However, the upcoming cross-border talks will still be a chance for Seoul to gauge how sincere Pyongyang is in taking responsibility for its attacks and promising to restrain from further provocations.

–Yeonpyeong Island attack: North Korea has publically acknowledged shelling the South Korean island that killed soldiers and civilians, so Pyongyang could “express regret” over the incident, which could be interpreted as a form of taking responsibility.

–Cheonan ship sinking: This is a much trickier matter because Pyongyang has denied torpedoing the South Korea ship, which goes against the results of an international investigation . It seems unlikely that Pyongyang would reverse its position at the inter-Korean military talks. Instead, the regime could choose to say something along the lines that it “would continue to work together toward resolving the issue.” However, it is unclear whether this type of “flexibility” would be enough for Seoul to give the green light for Six Party Talk preparations.

2. Nuclear talks:
Seoul would also like to hold high-level cross-border talks on the North’s nuclear programs to gauge the level of Pyongyang’s sincerity to denuclearize. However, the regime has in the past refused to discuss the nuclear issue with Seoul claiming it is a matter between it and Washington. The North has typically used the “nuclear card” to elicit direct talks with the U.S.

On the surface, it appears the pieces are about to become aligned to create an environment favorable for the resumption of the Six Party Talks. But there’s still a lot work to be done before all the pieces can fall into place.