Senior Policy Director John Erath spoke with Newsweek about the weapons used in Ukraine.
There are two situations at play in Ukraine, according to John Erath, senior policy director at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation.
Erath told Newsweek that there’s actual conflict on the ground, where HIMARS have proven very effective at hitting key Russian targets. But from a Russian perspective, the country has launched a series of attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure and seems to be playing the long game—focusing on “the larger picture,” he said.
“They want to illustrate that the opportunities for gaining more ground are going to get higher as more reservists come in, that the consequences are more severe by making more nuclear threats, and by announcing annexation…they are raising the stakes, should Ukraine capture more territory….The next steps are going to be providing Ukraine with the capabilities to ameliorate, to partially negate, the current set of Russian threats,” Erath said.
Erath said more complex questions remain moving forward, such as if Ukrainians at some juncture decide they’ve done enough and have regained enough of their territory to get a ceasefire.
Or, Russia could hold on and continue to build its forces and attack after the winter.
“At this point, Ukrainian resolve has been very high,” he said. “I would suspect that they would want to continue this as long as they can….We have to remember we are talking about people’s lives here. The more the war goes on, more people are going to die.” Read more