Front and Center: April 19, 2025

UKRAINE: HOW NOT TO END THE WAR

Last week, French President Emmanuel Macron hosted U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Keith Kellogg, and top diplomats from the United Kingdom, Germany and Ukraine. These joint talks between the United States, Ukraine and Europe were the first of their kind involving the Trump administration, which has repeatedly sidelined its NATO allies in its quest for a “peace deal.”

After the talks concluded on April 18, Rubio told reporters, “If it is not possible to end the war in Ukraine, we need to move on.” It’s not clear what exactly Rubio meant by his remarks other than to put more pressure on the involved parties as attempted negotiations and so-called “partial ceasefires” between Kyiv and Moscow have derailed.

In “What Sweden, Finland, and Poland can teach the United States about confronting Russia’s nuclear threats,” Center Scoville Fellow Marlena Broeker writes for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists that the United States must learn from its front-line allies to “prevent nuclear threats from dictating the relationship between Russia and the United States.” As negotiations stall and cracks between the United States and its NATO allies widen, Broeker argues that “limiting Ukraine’s and Europe’s roles in creating peace now will only diminish their ability to take control of their own security and maintain peace later.”

In the Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, Senior Policy Director John Erath writes that “NATO governments should avoid taking the bait of a ‘peace’ process on Russian terms, and realize that the objective is not merely a ceasefire but a solution that reinforces rather than undermines regional and global stability.” He also notes that “Russia’s reliance on imported troops is actually a sign of weakness and a signal that the Kremlin is running low.”

NORTH KOREA REJECTS POSSIBILITY OF DENUCLEARIZATION

On April 8, North Korea declared that its status as a nuclear weapons state is “irreversible,” rejecting any possibility of denuclearization talks. This statement accompanied remarks by Kim Yo Jong, sister to leader Kim Jong Un, who denounced U.S.-led denuclearization efforts as a “daydream” and reaffirmed Pyongyang’s commitment to strengthening its nuclear arsenal.

Days later on April 15, the United States flew B-1B bombers over the Korean Peninsula in a joint exercise with South Korea, coinciding with North Korea’s celebration of the 113th birthday of state founder Kim Il Sung. North Korea condemned the flyover as a “grave provocation” and threatened unspecified retaliation.

In response to the U.S. bomber deployment, North Korea’s Defense Ministry issued a statement on April 16, warning that it would “deter by dint of powerful force” any perceived threats to its security. The ministry criticized the joint drills as an open threat and accused the United States of escalating military tensions in the region.

CHINA CONTINUES DEVELOPING ARSENAL

Last month, the Federation of American Scientists released its annual assessment of China’s nuclear forces, estimating that Beijing possesses approximately 600 nuclear warheads. The report notes that China has completed construction of three new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silo fields, with around 30 silos loaded, and has increased its number of road-mobile ICBM bases.

On April 8, China and Russia issued a joint statement reaffirming their opposition to Western sanctions on Iran and expressing support for Tehran’s nuclear program. The statement emphasized the importance of diplomatic solutions and criticized unilateral sanctions as counterproductive.

IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi visited China in early April as part of an effort to strengthen cooperation on nuclear safety, safeguards and emerging technologies. His visit marked a continuation of China’s efforts to bolster its international nuclear credentials amid its expanding capabilities, with Grossi visiting several commercial nuclear locations.

IRAN TALKS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY IN ROME

On April 12, delegates from the United States and Iran met in Oman, to engage in nuclear talks mediated by the Omani state. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff told Fox News that the United States will focus its efforts during these talks on restricting Iran’s missile capability and uranium enrichment, with a strong focus on verification, rather than demanding that Iran dismantle its entire nuclear program. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reportedly characterized the first round of talks with the U.S. as “satisfactory.” To analysts outside the negotiating room, it appears that both sides have been willing so far to consider compromises to secure a deal.

On April 16, International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi visited Iran. The second round of talks occurred in Rome last weekend, with the third round to commence this Saturday in Oman.

EVALUATING TRUMP’S STATED DESIRE FOR ARMS CONTROL WITH RUSSIA AND CHINA

President Donald Trump has stated that he would like to commence talks with Russia and China aimed at reducing numbers of nuclear weapons. This is an encouraging proposal; the world would undoubtedly be safer with fewer, not more, nuclear weapons. It is also much easier said than done, writes Senior Policy Director John Erath in his latest post on the Nukes of Hazard blog as he examines the prospects for renewed arms control.

“Real, effective arms control is difficult and painstaking, even for experienced diplomats and Nobel Prize winners,” Erath writes. “To address the incipient arms race and the threat posed by nuclear weapons will require more than grabbing headlines with empty ‘deals.’ Conceding Ukrainian territory in return for an unenforceable pause on attacks on energy facilities is not diplomacy; it’s amateur hour. When it comes to the world’s most dangerous weapons, addressing the threat is not a job for amateurs.”

NUCLEAR TESTING IS A RELIC. RESUMING IT WOULD BE RECKLESS.

In his latest piece for Just Security, Nuclear Testing Is a Relic. Resuming It Would Be Reckless, Research Analyst Shawn Rostker challenges proposals to resume explosive nuclear testing, arguing that it would offer no technical benefit and would instead erode U.S. scientific advantages, global leadership and strategic stability.

“There is no compelling technical reason to conduct explosive nuclear tests,” he writes, pointing to the success of the Stockpile Stewardship Program and warning that renewed testing would “shatter the global norm that has held firm since the end of the Cold War.”

Rostker outlines how a single U.S. test could trigger a chain reaction — provoking Russia, China and others to test in turn, accelerating arms races across multiple regions. From the Indo-Pacific to South Asia and the Middle East, he argues, testing would hand strategic gains to U.S. adversaries while pressuring allies to reconsider their non-nuclear status. “Rather than reasserting strength,” he concludes, “the United States would find itself mired in an arms race it unwittingly legitimized.”

NEW ON THE NUKES OF HAZARD BLOG: SOUTH KOREA NUCLEAR PROSPECTS; SOUND AS VIOLENCE; WOMEN AND NUCLEAR WEAPONS

Nuclear Weapons Issues Are Women’s Issues: Program Coordinator Emma Sandifer explores the disproportionate impact of nuclear weapons use and testing on women and girls, and dives into the vital question: If women are disproportionately impacted by the use and testing of nuclear weapons, why are there far fewer women than men in the room when decisions related to nuclear weapons policy are deliberated?

Sound as Violence: The Need for International Regulation of Acoustic Weaponry: University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign doctoral student Emmy Tither explores the implications of sound used as violence and the need for regulation on sound weapons in our Next Up in Arms Control blog series.

A South Korean Bomb Would Be No Boon for Burden-Shifting: Franklin & Marshall College undergraduate Carl Parkin explores the many reasons why the United States should not back South Korean nuclear proliferation in our Next Up in Arms Control blog series.