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SPACE NUKES OR NOT, THIS WAS IRRESPONSIBLE Vague statements earlier this week from House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Turner (R-OH) about a highly classified report touched off speculation that Russia may be considering deployment of nuclear weapons in space. Other analysis speculates that Russia may either be experimenting with directed laser, or using nuclear-powered transport devices to launch into space equipment that would interfere with satellites (something the United States was exploring in the 1960s). Although Russia would undoubtedly seek to negate NATO’s advantages in space-based communications and command and control systems in a conflict, there would likely be better options for doing so. The more immediate issue, however, is the irresponsibility of a sitting Congressman, especially one in charge of an intelligence committee, initiating a public discussion of sensitive intelligence. Doing so potentially undermines national security more than long-standing Russian plans.
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WHY ISRAEL’S IRON DOME ISN’T FEASIBLE FOR THE U.S. Former President Donald Trump has recently added a new talking point to his stump speeches: a promise to build a missile defense shield over the United States akin to Israel’s Iron Dome — but “better,” of course. The problem, Senior Policy Director John Erath told NBC News, is that comparing missile defense in Israel to missile defense in the United States is “apples and oranges.” The countries are vastly different sizes with vastly different security concerns. Further, current U.S. long-range missile defenses were not designed to defend against more than a handful of missiles and can easily be overwhelmed.
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FOREIGN ASSISTANCE STILL IN THE BALANCE Just when it appeared that the Biden administration’s request for assistance to Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan and Gaza was dead, the Senate began a last-ditch effort to resurrect the bill. On February 7, the Senate rejected a procedural step to advance the foreign assistance package with a border security bill attached that had been negotiated by a three-Senator bipartisan group 49-50 (with 60 votes needed to pass). On February 8, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) brought the measure up again, this time without the border security bill that Republicans had long insisted was essential for their support of foreign assistance. The Senate passed the legislation 70-29, with 22 Republicans voting to support the legislation along with 48 Democrats. How the House of Representatives deals with the measure is very much up in the air.
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ALLIED ANGST AFTER TRUMP COMMENTS, UKRAINE AID BATTLE In light of political posturing and overblown concerns about U.S. weakness, some European officials are again raising concerns about U.S. extended deterrence commitments. This week, Polish Brigadier General Jaroslaw Kraszewski became the latest official to express a desire for increased nuclear deterrence in Europe. He argued nuclear weapons in Poland would be a strong deterrent, echoing comments made in 2022 by then-Polish President Andrzej Duda. Last month, Manfred Weber, leader of the center-right European People’s Party, argued that “Europe must build deterrence” and that “when push comes to shove, the nuclear option is the really decisive one.” These comments are not only a symptom of European frustration over waffling U.S. support for Ukraine, but also indicate recurring unease about U.S. long-term commitment to the alliance. In Congress, efforts are underway to secure the United States’ commitment to NATO. The current Pentagon authorization bill includes language prohibiting any president from unilaterally withdrawing from the alliance. Some Senators continue to express concerns especially after former President Donald Trump claimed last Saturday that he would “encourage” Russia to attack NATO members that did not meet their financial commitments to the alliance.
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CHINA, UNITED STATES AGREE TO WEAPONS TALKS Since last month’s estimates that place China’s strategic nuclear warheads at roughly 440, the United States and China have continued to flirt around the idea of continued arms control discussions. According to Pranay Vaddi, the senior White House official for arms control and non-proliferation, arms control progress vis-à-vis China would most likely have to take the form of risk reduction measures. Additionally, China and the United States have agreed to talks in the coming months on issues of artificial intelligence and autonomous weapons. Meanwhile, China’s corruption dragnet continues to ensnarl members of its nuclear enterprise. A leading nuclear fuel engineer is the latest to be swept up in corruption and bribery investigations that have now touched the country’s industrial sector after a string of high profile removals at the upper echelons of military leadership.
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NORTH KOREA CONDUCTS MORE MISSILE TESTS, STOPS ECONOMIC COOPERATION WITH SOUTH KOREA In recent weeks, North Korea has conducted a series of missile tests including multiple cruise missiles as well as a new underwater system , the Haeil 5-23, that is purportedly intended to be nuclear capable. It has also announced the development of a new ballistic control system for a ground-launched multiple-rocket launcher that analysts suspect is geared toward strikes against South Korea. Additionally, the North has benefited from the validation of its KN-23 SRBM as Russia has repeatedly fired the system at Ukraine in recent weeks. Russia has been procuring North Korean weapons and ammunition as part of the military cooperation agreement struck late last year. The North’s parliamentary body also voted this month to cease all economic cooperation with the South, coming on the heels of its announcement that it would no longer seek reunification with South Korea. While the North remains under strict multilateral sanctions, the United Nations announced this past week that it is investigating a slew of recent North Korean cyber attacks that may have helped the North rake in as much as $3 billion in illicit funds.
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U.S.-IRAN TENSIONS REMAIN AS IRAN SLOWS FISSILE MATERIAL STOCKPILING In the past month, the United States has stepped up its response to Iran-aligned regional militias. In response to sustained aggression by the rebel Houthi group, including a deadly attack on U.S. servicemembers in Jordan, the United States issued several rounds of retaliatory strikes against Yemen-based Houthi military assets. Retaliatory strikes on groups in both Iraq and Syria stirred concern that U.S-Iran tensions would escalate into open conflict. Despite this, hostilities have held constant. Iran has continued to obstruct International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) efforts to monitor its nuclear facilities, and declared in January that it had begun construction on a new nuclear research reactor in Isfahan. The IAEA later estimated that Iran had accelerated its uranium enrichment efforts and likely possessed enough fissile material for several nuclear warheads. However, in early February IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi announced that Iran had begun unilaterally to slow its stockpiling of highly enriched uranium but was still not being fully transparent in its nuclear intentions.
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DOOMSDAY CLOCK REMAINS AT CLOSEST EVER TO MIDNIGHT AS TIME RUNS OUT ON NEW START In late January, our friends at The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announced their decision to keep their famous Doomsday Clock, a symbolic but poignant measure of how close humans are to destroying the planet, at 90 seconds to midnight — the closest it’s ever been. Although not a scientific measure of the danger level, the Bulletin team considers many factors when setting the time each year, including nuclear weapons and climate change. Certainly, there are many nuclear issues to be concerned about. Russia’s nuclear blackmail, China’s reckless buildup and inflammatory rhetoric by some within our own Congress top the list. Plus, in less than two years, the last nuclear arms control agreement between the world’s two biggest nuclear powers — the United States and Russia — is set to expire. There is currently no plan in place for a follow-on agreement.
The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, known as New START , effectively limits the number of deployed warheads and missiles the United States and Russia have and provides unprecedented transparency between the two countries. Russia declared last year that it would be “suspending” its participation in the agreement, after the United States determined it was not in compliance. The State Department recently announced that while Russia remains in noncompliance with the agreement, it has also probably not increased its number of deployed warheads and missiles beyond New START limits. That’s good news, but is of little comfort given Russia’s ongoing war of aggression in Ukraine , constant nuclear threats and refusal to comply with treaty obligations.
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NEW ON THE CENTER WEBSITE: NUCLEAR ENERGY FACT SHEET; LESSONS FROM 2 YEARS OF WAR Fact Sheet: Nuclear Energy Technologies: The Center’s latest fact sheet explains what you need to know about the future of the nuclear energy industry. It includes novel reactor designs being considered and the types of next-gen fuels being explored. It also explains that such developments will entail some proliferation risks that will need to be addressed and safeguarded as they mature. The Ukraine War After Two Years — A Lesson From the Past : Senior Policy Director John Erath looks at the war in Ukraine as it enters its third year and draws interesting parallels between this war and the battle of Verdun in World War I. Critical lessons to learn include that a strategy relying on mass casualties — including employing WMD — is a risky endeavor.
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