Front and Center: June 15, 2019

WHAT’S GOING ON IN IRAN?
Is this a new Gulf of Tonkin incident? Reports of Iran bombing a Japanese tanker while Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was visiting Tehran surfaced Thursday morning, with the United States offering no proof that Iran was, indeed, behind the attacks. Why does proof matter? Because even though President Trump has said repeatedly that he does not want war with Iran, his actions suggest otherwise. National Security Advisor John Bolton whispering in his ear and pushing for a maximum pressure approach is adding familiar fuel to the possible fire.

Before jumping to any conclusions, Congress, our allies and the American public need to see more facts, evidence and analysis of the incident. This would be important for any administration, but particularly for one with that has a demonstrated penchant for bending the truth or outright lying.

There’s no doubt that the Trump administration has been building a steady case for war with Iran. For example, as Senior Policy Director Alexandra Bell writes, a typically apolitical report on arms control compliance turned political this year. Instead of focusing on Iran’s continued compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the report was filled with hypotheticals about what Iran could do or might do. The seeming intent was to help build a case for military options to deal with Iran’s nuclear program.

That’s why any American reaction to this incident must be careful and cautious. Further, it is imperative that Congress exert its authority over any use of force, particularly by making it clear that the 2001 Authorization to Use Military Force does not apply to conflict with Iran. 

RUMORS OF RUSSIAN EXPLOSIVE TESTING
Speaking of unsubstantiated claims, Defense Intelligence Agency Director Lt. Gen. Robert Ashley claimed late last month that Russia is “probably” violating the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty. This week, the DIA doubled down, saying the United States has “assessed that Russia has conducted nuclear weapons tests that have created nuclear yield.”

As Bell has told various media outlets, any charge of nuclear explosive testing, even at very low levels, is a very serious matter. If the United States has credible evidence of testing, it should immediately engage Russia in discussions and share the evidence with Congress and U.S. allies. None of that seems to be happening. The Department of State has not commented, and the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization, which monitors testing, has said they have not detected any unusual activity. 

EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT NO FIRST USE
Check out our new No First Use portal, featuring a fact sheet, answers to frequently asked questions, and a guide to debunking common myths about the policy. 

WHAT’S HAPPENED SINCE LEAVING THE ABM TREATY?
This week marked 17 years since the United States withdrew from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty. What’s happened since then? As this infographic shows: nothing good! Feel free to like and share on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram.