Front and Center: March 23, 2025

UNCERTAIN U.S. SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE RENEWS DETERRENCE DEBATE IN EUROPE

On the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion at the end of February, Senior Policy Director John Erath wrote a post in the Center’s Nukes of Hazard blog explaining why forcing a ceasefire goes against U.S. national interests and assumes Ukraine is in a much weaker position than it actually is.

Unfortunately, no one in the White House appears to have read our blog. In an explosive White House press conference at the end of February, President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance publicly berated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for allegedly not showing his gratitude for U.S. support throughout the war — a meeting we were quick to condemn.

Following the press conference, the United States stopped military aid to Ukraine then started it again, confusing leaders across Europe and provoking renewed debate about deterrence.

REPORT FINDS CHINA MIGHT DOUBLE ITS OPERATIONAL ARSENAL WITHIN FIVE YEARS

In early March, the Federation of American Scientists released its annual assessment of Chinese nuclear capabilities. The report concluded that China has made significant progress in expanding its nuclear arsenal and estimated that it may double its number of operational warheads by 2030.

On March 14, China hosted a high-level meeting with Russia and Iran to discuss Iran’s nuclear program, demonstrating Beijing’s efforts to play a more central role in shaping nuclear diplomacy. Later in the month, China conducted coordinated naval drills in the northern Indian Ocean alongside Russia and Iran following Tehran’s rejection of nuclear negotiations with the United States.

CENTER STAFF HELP DROP OFF NUCLEAR WAR BOOK TO EVERY MEMBER OF CONGRESS

Last week, Center staff joined partner organizations to deliver signed copies of Annie Jacobsen’s book, Nuclear War: A Scenario to each Member of Congress. The day of action was a tremendous success that included important conversations with congressional staff and even a visit to House Speaker Mike Johnson’s office (pictured: Research Analyst Connor Murray in the Speaker’s office).

DOGE CUTS AT NNSA COMPROMISE NUCLEAR SECURITY

Last month’s newsletter described the chaos of firing and rehiring National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) staff as part of the so-called Department of Government Efficiency’s (DOGE) effort to “streamline” government functions. More information has surfaced about who exactly was fired and the gaps this leaves for nuclear and national security.

The NNSA has struggled with understaffing for years. The agency had made gains in recent years to fill important gaps. However, more than 150 NNSA employees either took the Trump administration’s buyout offer or were caught up in the DOGE firings and not rehired. That reversed any staffing gains that had been achieved.

While we are not supportive of all the programs NNSA is involved in — most notably the ill-advised resumption of plutonium pit production — chaotic firing of scientists and career experts on nuclear safety decreases all our security. According to news reports, DOGE cuts at NNSA have caused departures of engineers, project analysts, lawyers and other key staff who ensure our nuclear weapons, while we still have them, are safe, secure and reliable.

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