Paul Castleman Fellow Sam Hickey spoke with TRT World about the Iranian missile strikes on Israel.
As the missile defence system came under the spotlight, security experts rushed to analyse its weak spots and how it was overwhelmed by the missile barrage.
“Iran’s strategy of launching missile barrages is designed to saturate air defence systems and force the Israelis to make tough choices about which to engage and which to let pass under significant time constraints,” Samuel Hickey of the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation tells TRT World.
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“We still don’t know if the missiles that appeared to breach Israel’s air defence systems had their payloads intact or reached their intended targets,” Hickey says, noting that Iran seemingly launched some of its more advanced missiles in the October 1 attack.
Tel Aviv likely anticipated the possibility of some missiles breaching its defence systems, Hickey says.
“Israeli defence planners are aware that no system can guarantee 100 percent interception. Iran’s missile programme has consistently been a significant focus of Israeli intelligence, and Israeli officials have likely accounted for the limitations of their defence systems in such scenarios,” he says.
It is the third time Israel’s air defence systems have become overwhelmed by a massive number of missiles entering its airspace at once.
First, an intense rocket barrage from Hamas in the surprise attack on October 8 last year saturated Israel’s air defence system. Then Iran launched a missile attack against Israel on April 15, leaving Israeli air defence systems overwhelmed.
“Even with a strong intercept record, the offence-defence race dramatically favours the offence,” he says.
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Hickey says each attack, especially one that partially breaches defences, provides data for improving interception algorithms, tactics and technology.
“Israel is likely to analyse any weaknesses or failures in its missile defence response and adapt accordingly… States must only overwhelm defences by saturating key target areas with incoming missiles.” Read more
