Paul Castleman Fellow Sam Hickey spoke with The Telegraph about the Iranian missile strikes on Israel.
Israel and its US, UK and European allies were given sufficient time to ready themselves to deploy fighter jets and warships to help take down the Iranian barrage of drones and missiles.
“This one was in relative terms more surprising,” Samuel Hickey, of the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, said.
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In Iran’s first large-scale attack on Israel, it used a combination of some 300 missiles and drones.
While the combined number is greater than the 200 fired late on Monday, the initial strike was made up mostly of cruise missiles and drones.
“It used slower cruise missiles and drones – suicide drones – that can be shot out of the sky by aircraft,” Mr Hickey said.
Ballistic missiles can fly at hypersonic speeds above mach-5 making them much harder to intercept by fighter jets or ground-based systems.
“Fighter jets are less likely to have been a huge factor,” Mr Hickey added.
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With both Israel and Ukraine largely reliant on the US for these interceptors, decisions have to be made.
“We still don’t know how many missiles Israel decided to engage, any number of missiles do just land in areas that aren’t going to cause much damage to human life or infrastructure… they will choose to let them pass” Mr Hickey said.
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Again, because there are genuine concerns about the scarcity of air-defence interceptors, there are fears Iran could attempt to overwhelm Israel in any large-scale bombardment.
“Tonight it seems that Iran launched fewer but more advanced missiles, but if this was to escalate into a conflict, this is something Israel is probably aware of,” Mr Hickey said.
“That might be a reason not to escalate this into a full conflict.” Read more
