Today in the Star-Ledger, the major newspaper in my great home state of New Jersey, Laicie and I have an op-ed discussing the Senate’s role in upcoming negotiations with Iran. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee is chaired by NJ Senator Robert Menendez, and our piece encourages Sen. Menendez to work with the administration on a diplomatic solution to the standoff.
Toy Drones and the Evolution of Drone Warfare
The nomination of President Obama’s counterterrorism adviser, John Brennan, to head the CIA has a lot of folks talking about drones. Head over to PolicyMic today to see my take on the most recent advances in drone warfare.
A quick clip…
The debate over drone warfare as a counterterrorism tactic is only just beginning to take shape. Drones provide the U.S. with an option for precise long-range strike that poses fewer risks to men in uniform. But they also raise moral and ethical questions that have yet to be addressed. Drones’ relative ease of use and antiseptic nature, along with the ever-increasing reach of the U.S. drone war and expansion of U.S. “kill lists,” has raised questions over the legal and political consequences of such a strategy. The president himself has noted that, “There’s a remoteness to it that makes it tempting to think that somehow we can, without any mess on our hands, solve vexing security problems.”
The Fiscal Cliff Deal and Nuclear Reductions
On January 1, as I was psychologically preparing for the Rose Bowl (sadly my Wisconsin Badgers lost for the third year in a row), I was shocked to find that the text of the Biden-McConnell fiscal cliff deal (H.R. 8) included a section on strategic delivery systems. Obviously intrigued, I had a look at the text and found that the provision amended Section 1035 of the Fiscal Year 2013 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) “(1) by striking ‘‘that’’ before ‘‘the Russian Federation’’ and inserting ‘‘whether’’; and (2) by inserting ‘‘strategic’’ before ‘‘arms control obligations’’.”
Now doubly intrigued, I went back and had a look at the original text of Section 1035 in the NDAA. The specific language in question stated:
`(c) Prior Notification- Not later than 60 days before the date on which the President carries out any reduction to the number of strategic delivery systems, the President shall–
`(1) make the certification under subsection (a) for the fiscal year for which the reductions are proposed to be carried out;
`(2) transmit the additional report matters under subsection (b) for such fiscal year, if such additional report matters are so required; and
`(3) certify to the congressional defense committees that the Russian Federation is in compliance with its arms control obligations with the United States and is not engaged in activity in violation of, or inconsistent with, such obligations.
It turns out that the President would be unable to certify that Russia is in compliance with all of its arms control obligations since Russia is in fact not in compliance with all of its arms control obligations if said obligations are defined to include the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE), the Chemical Weapons Conventions (CWC), etc. Given the President’s inability to certify “that the Russia Federation is in compliance…” the provision could prevent the reduction of strategic delivery systems under the New START treaty (and beyond). By adding “whether” in place of “that” and “strategic” before “arms control obligations”, the language cannot stop reductions required by New START and is consistent with the rest of the provision.
I missed this subtle wording during my first run through of the NDAA, but thankfully better minds in the administration did not. Indeed, the administration issued a signing statement with the bill which included this:
Section 1035, which adds a new section 495(c) to title 10, is deeply problematic, as it would impede the fulfillment of future U.S. obligations agreed to in the New START Treaty, which the Senate provided its advice and consent to in 2010, and hinder the Executive’s ability to determine an appropriate nuclear force structure. I am therefore pleased that the Congress has included a provision to adequately amend this provision in H.R. 8, the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012, which I will be signing into law today.
Clearly this was a very big deal behind the scenes (it has also generated a surprising amount of media coverage) and the language of the statement suggests the President may not have signed the NDAA if this provision wasn’t fixed. What’s less clear is whether the House authors of this conference provision, which was a compromise version of two differing provisions on strategic delivery system reductions in the original House and Senate version of the defense bill, deliberately worded Section 1035 to prevent implementation of New START, made a drafting error, or something in between.
In any event, it’s obviously a good news that the problem was fixed (reportedly there was bipartisan agreement on the need for the fix). As our friends at the Arms Control Association point out, New START shouldn’t be “held hostage to longstanding disagreements with Russia on other issues.”
I’d go a step further and argue that even the amended version of Section 1035 is unnecessary and redundant because the issues it raises re: nuclear weapons spending and Russian compliance with New START are already adequately addressed in the New START resolution of ratification and the FY 2012 NDAA.
While Section 1035 may not initially have been deliberately worded to impede New START, Republicans on the House Armed Services Committee have been on a mission the last two years to delay and even block implementation of the treaty and further changes to US nuclear posture via the NDAA. As we’ve tried to regularly remind readers, doing so defies the bipartisan counsel of former government officials and military leaders and would be a major setback for US national security.
General Gard Joins Thom Hartmann to Discuss the Pentagon
Last week, the Center’s Chairman, Lt. General (ret. USA) Robert Gard appeared on The Big Picture with Thom Hartmann discussing the need to reshape the Pentagon budget to reflect 21st century security threats. Interested in seeing the interview? Here is…
Boehner scraps "Plan B," lemmings might want to take note.
Those gearing up to oppose House Republicans’ “Plan B” budget solution received a welcome surprise last night, when Speaker Boehner announced that the plan would not come to the floor. The measure failed to garner enough Republican support to make even a viable statement.
But what does this mean for the fiscal cliff? Should the lemmings prepare? The President and Congress now have just over a week to strike a deal, and as of yet things aren’t looking good, at least for any hope of a grand bargain.
Reports now indicate that the White House will push for an interim measure that would extend the Bush-era tax cuts on income below $250,000, pause sequestration, and renew unemployment insurance benefits. This means a large number of tax provisions would expire, bringing in new revenue, and budget cuts would be left to another day.
A cynical mind might begin to wonder if this could signal the quiet death of sequestration cuts, given that at its outset the mechanism was meant to force Republican members of Congress into a deal on tax cuts. With the larger goal accomplished, the budget could gently slip back into its old routine, Republicans having dodged the defense budget bullet and Democrats having succeeded in raising taxes on the wealthy.
There’s still a chance for the two sides to come together after Christmas, and who knows, maybe the spirit of the season will take hold. But just days from the deadline, when any agreement will have to contend with what could be a tough fight in the House, the cliff is beginning to look more and more realistic.
Merry Christmas! Hope you’re not afraid of heights.
