Research Analyst Shawn Rostker wrote an op-ed in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists on strengthening risk reduction in nuclear weapons states.
On February 4, 2026, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), the last legally binding arms control agreement on strategic nuclear warheads, will expire, ushering in a theoretically unconstrained nuclear world.
Treaty-based bilateral arms control has been valuable for managing military competition and reducing the risk of nuclear use. But it is not the only instrument for doing so. In a period of erosion of the treaty-based arms control architecture, other tools are needed that capture strategic restraint, limit destabilizing capabilities, and prevent crises from spilling over into conflict. One of them is risk reduction.
Risk reduction can foster cooperation on limitations and quantitative reductions of nuclear weapons. Most important, risk reduction measures can help avoid worst outcomes by channeling strategic competition toward restraint and transparency while reducing ambiguities that can lead to misunderstanding and miscalculation. Read more
