Today (December 3) President Obama spoke at the National Defense University (NDU) as part of a day-long symposium to commemorate the 20th anniversary of the Nunn-Lugar Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) program and honor the two men most responsible fo…
Senate Passes New Iran Sanctions in Spite of White House Objections
In an effort to stifle the country’s nuclear progress and push the issue forward (though which direction each member might hope to push could vary widely) the Senate today approved additional economic sanctions on Iran by a unanimous vote of 94-0.
The bill, an amendment to the 2013 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) co-sponsored by Sens. Robert Menendez (D-NJ) and Mark Kirk (R-Ill), primarily targets Iran’s energy and shipping sectors. It does not require foreign countries to significantly reduce all non-petroleum sales to Iran or freeze Iranian foreign currency reserves, provisions that were under consideration at the outset of the bill.
While the legislation does provide some level of flexibility to the executive branch, the administration voiced its concern in a memo from the National Security Council just hours before the vote, arguing that the new sanctions are “unnecessary, duplicative and ‘threaten to confuse and undermine’ provisions in current law.”
Speaking in favor of the sanctions, Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl Levin (D-MI) said lawmakers would try to address the administration’s concerns in conference.
While backers of the bill hope that additional sanctions might pressure Iranian leaders into action, critics argue that more effort should be put into a negotiated solution, and that the administration’s more targeted sanctions should be allowed to run their course (see Usha’s recent analysis here for a great rundown of the debate).
The NDAA awaits a vote on passage that could come as soon as Dec 3.
Another Secret Pyongyang Trip, Missile Prep & Nuclear Reactor Construction…?
Three bits of news and some quick, initial thoughts:
1. 2nd Secret Trip to Pyongyang…?
The plot thickens. White House officials reportedly made another top secret trip to Pyongyang on August 17th aboard a U.S. military aircraft from Guam, according to Korea’s Donga Ilbo newspaper (Korean language link) citing diplomatic sources. If true, it would be the second such trip this year since the April day-trip that came one week before Pyongyang launched its long-range rocket, but this time for a four-day visit. Donga Ilbo reports the aircraft took the same route as the one in April but this time notified Chinese officials beforehand.
News broke mid-afternoon yesterday (Nov. 28th U.S. time), and so began the Sherlock Holmes investigation. Cryptic diplomatic responses – NCND (neither confirm nor deny) – by senior officials from several capitols both reported and not reported in the news and point to clearer signs that there actually might have been another top secret trip. As Donga Ilbo reported, the August trip (if true) may have been for risk management ahead of the U.S. presidential elections. Perhaps it was follow-up of April’s meeting, and perhaps there was some mentioning of what steps a second Obama administration might be willing to take. At the same time, the trip was an extremely politically risky 007 action taken because it was so close to the elections with no clear indication who would sit in the oval office.
2. North Korean Missile Launch…?
It’s been widely reported that Pyongyang appears to be gearing up for another missile launch with the possible aim of influencing South Korea’s December 19th presidential elections. We just don’t know for sure with North Korea, but there’s another scenario that seems to have been missed in the broader public discourse. The “target” of North Korean missiles is the U.S., not South Korea, so it can be assessed that missile prep and/or launches are a message to the U.S. Assuming the August 17th top secret trip to Pyongyang is true, and assuming some “deal” was struck (however big or small), then the latest missile preparation movements could be a message reminding the Obama administration to keep its word in the next term. While maintaining technical readiness, Pyongyang may not have made a political decision to launch a missile yet – it may wait until the Obama administration completes its transition, watch Washington’s next steps, and then decide to launch if it is unhappy. The current weather may not be attractive for a missile launch, and they usually struggle with the weather even during clearer seasons like the spring and summer. That’s one scenario, but of course, when it comes to North Korea, no one really knows with any certainty — they may very well launch in December. Multiple launches would help help perfect the North’s missile technology, but we should also remember that Pyongyang’s provocations are also contingent upon timing and circumstance whether it’s for domestic or international motivations.
3. Progress at New Nuclear Reactor?
The Chicago Tribune quotes International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Chief Yukiya Amano that North Korea “has continued construction of the light water reactor and largely completed work on the exterior of the main buildings” but the IAEA “remains unable to determine the reactor’s design features or the likely date for its commissioning.”
Amano said: “While the agency continues to monitor the reported uranium enrichment facility, using satellite imagery, its configuration and operational status cannot be established.”
Pyongyang withdrew from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty in 2003 and IAEA monitors have been denied on-site access.
In a nutshell: More movements resonating from North Korea in the months to come can be expected. It is critical that all members of the Six Party Talks coordinate stances early and are in sync if and when Pyongyang unleashes another provocation amid political transitions in key countries next year.
Why Iron Dome Can’t Be Scaled-Up
By Kingston Reif Published in Open Zion, a blog at The Daily Beast, on November 29, 2012. Article summary below; read the full text here. Iron Dome is all the rage. It has achieved other-worldly status in some defense circles due to reports that the system intercepted 80 to 90 percent of the rockets launched […]
Politifact Article on NPT Quotes Kingston Reif
Successful 2010 treaty review conference, Iran sanctions bolster promise By Louis Jacobson Politifact During the 2008 presidential race, Barack Obama promised to “crack down on nuclear proliferation by strengthening the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty so that countries like North Korea and Iran that break the rules will automatically face strong international sanctions.” Click here to […]