by Kingston Reif “What the super committee’s failure means for nuclear weapons,” was originally published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists on December 14, 2011. On November 21, the 12-member congressional super committee announced that it failed to approve a plan to shrink the budget deficit by at least $1.2 trillion over the […]
Quote of the Day: Misplaced Defense Spending Priorities Edition
“The amount of money we’re spending on maintaining nuclear weapons, modernizing nuclear weapons, is not in keeping with the modern world,” Levin said. “It’s much more a Cold War remnant.”
So said Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl Levin (D-MI) during a November 11 interview on Bloomberg Television to air this weekend.
Sen. Levin is right: Current and planned U.S. spending on nuclear weapons is totally out of whack with the 21st century security environment and poses financial and opportunity costs that can’t be justified given the current economic climate. Following through with current plans to replace all three legs of the triad could saddle the U.S. with an excessively large nuclear arsenal for the next half century. Check out our resource center on nuclear weapons spending for more information!
Exchange of Day: Onerous Conditions on Reducing Non-Deployed Weapons Edition
REP. [MICHAEL] TURNER: The next issue goes to the issue of reducing without the hedge. You know, our provision [in the FY 2012 National Defense Authorization Act] is the chemistry military research facility in New Mexico, the uranium processing facilit…
Laicie Olson quoted on Iran by CNN
What to do about Iran By Josh Levs, CNN November 10, 2011 Several analysts say that military action is not the way to go. “Military action is just too risky and has little possibility for payoff,” analyst Laicie Olson of The Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation said in a blog post for CNN’s Global […]
New Details on Iran Don’t Change the Game
A new report on Iran’s nuclear capability from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) does not contain any startling new developments, but already it has some conservatives in the U.S. and Israel beating the drums for war.
While the report contains a level of detail not seen before, it does not contain a “smoking gun.” Details of Iran’s likely weaponization activities prior to 2003 are laid out clearly and include:
• Efforts, some successful, to procure nuclear related and dual use equipment and materials by military related individuals and entities (Annex, Sections C.1 and C.2);
• Efforts to develop undeclared pathways for the production of nuclear material (Annex, Section C.3);
• The acquisition of nuclear weapons development information and documentation from a clandestine nuclear supply network (Annex, Section C.4); and
• Work on the development of an indigenous design of a nuclear weapon including the testing of components (Annex, Sections C.5–C.12).
It is clear from the IAEA’s report that these activities took place under a highly structured nuclear program. Iran’s major nuclear effort, identified as the AMAD plan,was stopped “rather abruptly” by Tehran in late 2003, but some staff may have “remained in place to record and document the achievements of their respective projects.”
Unfortunately, more recent activities receive a far lower level of clarity from the IAEA. According to the report, there are, “indications that some activities relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device continued after 2003, and that some may still be ongoing,” but “the Agency’s ability to construct an equally good understanding of activities in Iran after the end of 2003 is reduced, due to the more limited information available to the Agency.”
While the Agency continues to express concern with regard to Iran’s nuclear program, the level of activity associated with that program post-2003 remains unclear. While Iran’s nuclear program continues to make progress, an Iranian nuclear weapon is not imminent and the U.S. intelligence community continues to believe that Iran has yet to make the political decision to build and test a nuclear weapon.
See here for the full analysis of the IAEA’s new report and what it means.