by John Isaacs Published in Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists on November 29, 2010. It goes without saying that the mid-term elections were a disaster for Democrats: Republicans took control of the House of Representatives — winning over 60 seats — and also picked up six Senate seats. The Senate will remain in Democratic hands, […]
The Governator On New START
How did we miss this!? In remarks to the U.S.-Russian Business Council last week in Cal”e”fornia, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger was asked to opine on the New START treaty. Arnold has been saying smart things about nuclear weapons for some time n…
Aliens Disrupt ICBMs at F.E. Warren?
Maybe those former Air Force officers were right about extraterrestrials tampering with our nukes. Via Marc Ambinder:President Obama was briefed this morning on a power failure at F.E. Warren Air Force Base in Wyoming that took 50 nuclear interco…
US Announces $60 Billion Arms Sale to Saudi Arabia
The Obama administration notified Congress today of a “a significant defense package that will promote regional security and enhance the defensive capabilities of an important Gulf partner with whom we have had a longstanding and close security relationship.” The deal with Saudi Arabia, worth up to $60 billion, will become one of the largest-ever single US arms deals.
The State Department and Pentagon informed lawmakers that the delivery of weapons would be spread over 15-20 years. Weapons systems include 84 new F-15 fighter jets, 70 upgrades of existing Saudi F-15s, 70 Apache attack helicopters, and 72 Black Hawk helicopters as well as a wide array of missiles, bombs, launchers and equipment.
Andrea Shalal-Esa notes that in these tough economic times, with increasing budgetary pressure on both the US and Europe, US defense firms have begun to look to the Middle East and Asia for continued weapons sales in the coming years. This particular deal might help to offset the UK’s decision to trade its planned buy of 138 F-35B short takeoff and vertical landing versions of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter for the F-35C carrier variant.
While Congress has 30 days to block the deal, it seems unlikely that they will. “Congress is a big place and there’s a lot of members, and there may be differing opinions about the sale,” said Assistant Secretary of State for Political Military Affairs Andrew Shapiro, “but we feel comfortable that we have done adequate pre-consultations with members of Congress that there will not be a barrier to completing this sale.”
And don’t expect any flack from Israel. While it has not been stated directly, the deal has been widely acknowledged as a move to counter the perceived threat of Iran to its neighbors. Israel has traditionally been wary of arms sales to nearby Arab countries, but in this moment of uncertainty, the rules have changed. Israeli strategists now predominantly consider Iran, rather than the Arab countries, to be the greatest external threat to Israel’s security. Some rumors have even speculated that Saudi Arabia has already granted Israel permission to use its airspace in the event of an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
On the question of “where these arms may be in 10 or 20 or 30 years’ time?” Shapiro remarked that after extensive review, the administration is, “comfortable that this sale will serve to enhance U.S. national security.”
Cartwright on New START Reductions
Regular readers of NoH know that I’ve been on a mini-crusade of sorts to push back against the argument that the launcher and deployed delivery vehicle limits in New START are based on a misguided ideological predilection for arms reduction rather than sound military and strategic analysis (see here, here, and here).
One of the arguments made by critics such as Keith Payne and Sen. John Thune (R-SD) is that New START requires a lower limit on deployed U.S. delivery vehicles than was suggested last summer by some Department of Defense officials. Specifically, Payne and Thune pointed to testimony from Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. James Cartwright in July 2009 that he would be “very concerned” if the number of strategic delivery vehicles dropped below 800 (note that the limit in New START is 700).
Thanks to the treasure trove of additional documents contained in the recently released Senate Foreign Relations Committee report on the New START treaty, we now know that in early September Gen. Cartwright clarified his position in a letter to the Senate Armed Services Committee. The text of the letter can be read here.
In sum, Gen. Cartwright concludes that “the treaty limitation of 700 deployed strategic delivery vehicles imposed by New START provides a sound framework for maintaining stability and allows us to maintain a strong and credible deterrent that ensures our national security while moving to lower levels of strategic nuclear forces.” Had he known the outcome of the New START negotiations at the time of his July 2009 statement, he would have sang a different tune.
P.S. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee’s report on New START is an incredibly valuable and exhaustive document that should be required reading for both experts and novices alike, despite a stupefying minority view from Senators Barrasso, Wicker, Inhofe, Risch, and DeMint.
P.P.S.: Another noteworthy nugget from the report is a letter from Vice Presdient Biden to the Committee dated September 15 (the day before the Committee voted on the treaty) promising to update the administration’s 1251 report, which already provides for $80 billion dollars over ten years to sustain our weapons and their supporting infrastructure. Writes Biden:
Out-year budgets are, by definition, projections built on assumptions. NNSA has used the time since the Spring to – when the NPR and New START were concluded – to work on updating initial assumptions. We now have a more complete understanding of stockpile requirments, including the life extension program needs. Similarly, the designs of key facilities such as the Uranium Processing Facility and the Chemical and Mettalurgy Research Replacement Facility have progressed. Based on information learned since the submission of the President’s FY2011 budget and the report under Section 1251 of the National Defense Authorization Act for FY 2010, we expect that funding requirements will increase in future budget years.
Later this fall, the administration will provide the Congress with information that updates the Section 1251 report. At that time, and in our future budgets, we will address any deficiencies in the Future Years Nuclear Security Program. We are also prepared to brief the oversight committies and interested Senators as these programs progress, so that Congress can have full visibility into the program and confidence into our processes.
In other words, even more money looks to be on the way; waaaaay more than enough money. Stay tuned. Clearly the administration’s commitment to maintaining our nuclear weapons isn’t in doubt. Unfortunately the same can’t yet be said of the GOP’s commitment to New START.
