Senior Policy Director John Erath spoke with elPeriódico about the potential for a renewed nuclear arms race. The original article is in Spanish.
There are an estimated 12,121 nuclear warheads in total, of which about 9,585 are available for military use, according to the latest report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), published last June. The US and Russia alone own 90% of the global arsenal. “There is great concern among experts that a new arms race may be beginning,” agrees John Erath, director of the Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation (CNAP) in Washington, DC.
The New START Treaty, signed by the US and Russia in 2010, limited the number of deployed nuclear warheads per party to 1,550. It also established that both countries would share data on their nuclear programs and even conduct visits to each other’s facilities to inspect their equipment. “It was an excellent idea that required transparency,” Erath, who worked for the US government for 30 years, including on the National Security Council (NSC), told this newspaper. The agreement is set to expire on February 6, 2026, and there is no intention to renew it.
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The invasion of Ukraine ended all cooperation between Russia and the Western bloc. The rest of the world watched, paralyzed. In those days, Russia’s nuclear weapons were repeatedly pointed out as an argument for not interfering. “The desire not to get involved in a conflict with Russia that could escalate into a nuclear war was a correct argument,” Erath analyzes, and clarifies: “but what it did was validate Russia, which felt less vulnerable because it had nuclear weapons.” This dynamic, which first emerged with the invasion of Crimea in 2014, was repeated with greater intensity in 2022 with Russia’s full-scale occupation of Ukraine. “Russia has very frequently resorted to nuclear threats to deter NATO countries and others from providing assistance to Ukraine. And it has been very effective,” he notes, although some level of aid has eventually been sent to Ukrainian forces, but always with restraint.
The greatest risk is that the war in Ukraine will set a precedent if Russia prevails and demonstrates that “military aggression backed by nuclear threats” works, Erath notes. North Korea, and perhaps others, are already taking note. “If nuclear threats are normalized as a tool of state policy, it gives countries a new reason to acquire and maintain nuclear capabilities,” he warns. Read more
