Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation

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Ukraine Hasn’t Seen Full HIMARS Potential, Thanks to U.S. Altering: Report

Senior Policy Director John Erath spoke with Newsweek about the U.S. contribution of modified HIMARS to Ukraine.

John Erath, senior policy director at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, told Newsweek that the Biden administration’s approach has been “very consistent.”

“They have tried to avoid taking steps that would escalate aspects of this conflict, that is U.S. opposing Russia,” Erath said. “Most of the assistance has been defensive in nature and helps Ukraine protect and recover its own territory.”

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Erath believes the U.S. will continue to review what is being provided to Ukraine as part of an “appropriate overall strategy” that not only avoids armed aggression, but seeks “not to reward it.”

The question is how long both Russia and Ukraine can maintain the ongoing conflict, he said.

“It’s pretty seriously winter by now and it’s making it difficult for people in both countries,” he continued. “People are suffering who don’t have energy and heat, and both governments are feeling pressure from their populations to do something and end this and deliver basic services.”

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It’s a tale of two motives, Erath added. Russia “has gone all in” and Russian President Vladimir Putin views victory as the essential goal of his regime.

“They’re not sure they can survive consequences of failure in Ukraine,” Erath said, adding that Ukraine is fighting not just for national survival “but literally their best chance to get their territory back.”

He said that if Russia waited eight years and invaded Ukraine again, there’s no guarantee the Ukrainians could be as competent and forceful in their defenses.

“The momentum is on Ukraine’s side now,” he said. “Winter is slowing things down but there’s still not the compelling reason to stop the fight. That just increases the tragedy.” Read more