Research Analyst Shawn Rostker spoke with Le Devoir about the survival of Iranian nuclear facilities after Israeli and American strikes. The original article is in French.
The Khamenei regime is likely concerned about the need to reestablish its deterrence force , believes Shawn Rostker, an analyst for the Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation, a nonprofit organization based in Washington.
If so, “[the regime] could certainly accelerate the development of its nuclear program, in whole or in part,” he said in turn.
Opacity
After the Israeli and US strikes, however, Iran’s uranium enrichment project will be even more opaque, Rostker laments.
“Iran will now be less inclined to open itself to future international inspections after being attacked. The view that we, the international community, previously had on the ground is probably now removed.”
On Wednesday, Iranian lawmakers adopted a bill to suspend all cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The bill will be submitted to the country’s presidency for ratification.
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Following the ceasefire that came into effect Tuesday , President Trump hinted that talks between Iran and the United States should take place next week.
For Shawn Rostker, reestablishing communication is critical at this point, “even if it is indirectly, through secret discussions or regional mediation with Qatar, for example.”
Diplomacy is “the only tool” to “guarantee a permanent solution to this crisis,” he emphasizes. “There is no military solution.” Read more
