Front and Center: January 17, 2021

THE PRESIDENT, INAUGURATION AND NUCLEAR WEAPONS
As we count down the hours until President-elect Joe Biden is sworn in on January 20, just two weeks after an insurrectionist siege on the Capitol, more people than ever before have been paying attention to the president’s nuclear authority and the fact that a man deemed too dangerous for social media still has the nuclear codes. It must be clear: the president alone has the power to launch one or all of the United States’ roughly 4,000 nuclear weapons. There are no checks in this system — by design.

We have long advocated for changes to this system, specifically ones that would not give any president — regardless of temperament and experience — the sole authority to launch nuclear weapons. A bill introduced in Congress by Sen. Ed Markey (D-MA) and Rep. Ted Lieu (D-CA-33) the last two terms, and slated to be reintroduced shortly, would address this issue plainly by requiring Congress to sign off on any nuclear first strike. Executive Director John Tierney spoke about this bill when it was introduced for the second time in 2019.

On Friday, the Center released an episode of its Nukes of Hazard podcast that explains the history behind the president’s nuclear authority and details how the “nuclear football” transitions from one president to another — even if one of those presidents is thousands of miles away. To dive deeper into the history of presidential launch authority, check out this Nukes of Hazard podcast episode from September.

IRAN CONTINUES REDUCING ITS BREAKOUT TIME
As we discussed in our last issue, nuclear legislation passed by the Iranian parliament has been implemented with an increasingly escalatory timeline. Around the end of February, Tehran plans to slice international inspector access to its nuclear program until it receives the sanctions relief it was promised under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, better known as the Iran nuclear deal.

Already, Iran has begun enriching uranium to 20% — a small step away from weapons-grade — at its underground facility at Fordow. Previously, Iran had only enriched uranium up to 4.5%, which was still a violation of the nuclear deal’s 3.67% limit.

Last week, Iran once again notified the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, of new violations prescribed by the nuclear legislation. Iran is starting work to develop uranium metal-based fuel for the Tehran Research Reactor. Iran has not previously conducted research and development on uranium metal. Experiments with metal alloys are prohibited under the nuclear deal because of their potential proliferation implications. In addition to the leverage Iran has accumulated by incrementally breaching the limits of the nuclear deal, Tehran has amassed an array of diplomatic cards to keep U.S. preconditions for its return to compliance off the table.

Tehran has reduced its breakout time — the time needed to amass enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon — from a year to just a few months. These new escalations will further reduce that timeline and add even more pressure on the incoming Biden-Harris administration to re-enter the nuclear deal quickly.

DIPLOMATS, EXPERTS TO FILL TOP FOREIGN POLICY POSITIONS ONCE AGAIN
President-elect Biden continues to announce appointments to top foreign policy positions, including Amb. Wendy Sherman as Deputy Secretary of State and Amb. Bonnie Jenkins as Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security. Sherman was the chief negotiator of the Iran nuclear deal as the Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs under President Barack Obama. Jenkins led many of the State Department’s nuclear security initiatives under President Obama. These picks and others make clear that the Biden-Harris administration understands the grave nuclear threats that face this country and the world, and underscore their commitment to having experts address such threats.

NEW START AGREEMENT SET TO EXPIRE FEBRUARY 5 UNLESS EXTENDED
In addition to concerns about returning the United States and Iran to compliance with the Iran nuclear deal, the Biden-Harris administration will have to address another nuclear crisis on day one: the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START). This agreement with Russia that successfully led to cuts in the world’s two biggest nuclear arsenals and allows for incredible transparency between the two countries expires on February 5, but can be — and should be — extended for another five years.

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