Front and Center: July 21, 2024

SENTINEL MISSILE SYSTEM EVEN MORE EXPENSIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT

At the beginning of this year, the Air Force reported to Congress that the program meant to replace the Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), known as the Sentinel, was 37% over budget. That cost overrun triggered a review mandated by law aimed at determining whether the program was vital to national security, or whether a more cost-effective alternative was available.

Recently, the Department of Defense certified that it would continue with the Sentinel program after conducting the review. The rigor with which alternatives were considered remains questionable since much of the review has not been made public. One thing that has been made clear: the cost of this program is now expected to be $141 billion. That is a staggering 81% increase over the 2020 forecast.

Executive Director and former Congressman John Tierney published an op-ed in Newsweek on the topic last month, before the review was completed.

“Imagine the reaction to this level of overrun in a different industry,” he writes. “We cannot set the precedent that this kind of increase is normal and should not be questioned extensively.”

A note that the public hearing mentioned in Tierney’s op-ed has been postponed.

IRAN SAYS IT WOULD RETURN TO NUCLEAR AGREEMENT

Following a surprisingly strong showing by reformers in recent elections, Iran’s acting foreign minister said days ago it would be open to resuming negotiations with Washington on restoring the Iran nuclear deal. It is still conducting indirect nuclear talks via Oman.

Meanwhile, recent satellite imagery shows that two Iranian ballistic missile facilities have expanded, likely for increased missile production. This comes after Iran has expanded its most sensitive nuclear production site, leading some leaders to stop claiming it is only for peaceful use, and the United States issuing fresh sanctions in response.

NATO CELEBRATES 75TH YEAR IN WASHINGTON AS FUTURE U.S. SUPPORT LOOKS QUESTIONABLE

President Joe Biden recently hosted the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Summit that both celebrated NATO’s 75th anniversary and delivered strong support for Ukraine against Russia’s invasion. Alliance members promised Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy more support during the summit. How long that support continues, however, depends in part on the outcome of our November elections. Former President Donald Trump has been skeptical of NATO’s support of Ukraine; the newly minted vice presidential nominee, Sen. J.D. Vance, voted against additional U.S. support for Ukraine that eventually passed Congress in April.

NORTH KOREA CONDUCTS MISSILE LAUNCH WITH ‘NEW’ TECHNOLOGY

In late June, North Korea and Russia signed an agreement that committed one another to provide aid in the event that the other faced “aggression.” Exactly what kind of aid and to what extent was not immediately clear, nor is it clear what might constitute aggression. But experts believe this mutual aid would likely include military and economic assistance.

Also in late June, North Korea conducted a missile launch that it claimed successfully demonstrated a multiple targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV) capability. Such an advancement would improve the North’s ability to overcome U.S. ballistic missile defense, but South Korean military officials refuted claims the test was successful in the traditional sense. Although the missile appeared to fail during the early phase of its flight, it’s likely the North Korean military received data that will help develop the capability further.

In recent days, North Korea has resumed flying trash-carrying balloons over the South and has made efforts to install more landmines along the demarcation border. Moreover, in the wake of a new deterrence agreement between the United States and South Korea, the North issued explicit threats of retaliation in response to what it perceives as yet another escalation by the United States and ROK.

NEW NUKES OF HAZARD PODCAST: THE ELIMINATION OF U.S. CHEMICAL WEAPONS: LESSONS LEARNED AND FUTURE PROSPECTS

Chemical weapons have left a lasting impression on global security since their introduction in World War I. Now, with 100% of America’s chemical weapons legacy dismantled, host Farah Sonde speaks to four experts who were instrumental in helping the United States reach total elimination to hear their stories and listen to their concerns about future chemical weapons threats. Nukes of Hazard is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, or you can listen online now.

CHINA ANNOUNCES SUSPENSION OF U.S. TALKS

Only a few months after China and the United States resumed semi-official nuclear weapons discussions, China announced on July 17 that it would be suspending all further nuclear talks over U.S. arms transfers to Taiwan. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said China is following Russia’s lead in not engaging on arms control even when there are other bilateral challenges. “We think this approach undermines strategic stability. It increases the risk of arms race dynamics.”

This comes after Chinese representatives told U.S. counterparts in March as part of their most recent nuclear discussion that China would not resort to the use of nuclear threats over a Taiwan scenario. In another disappointing development, the White House announced that China also rejected a U.S. proposal in May to limit the use of artificial intelligence applications within nuclear command and control procedures and processes.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR DEEPENS DIVIDE IN ASIA

On June 19, 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un signed the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership to create a military alliance between the two nations before Putin set off for Hanoi the next day. In response, South Korea considering arming Ukraine, only to be warned that if it did so, Russia would be willing to arm Pyongyang in return. Putin’s trips to Pyongyang and Hanoi along with meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping in Astana and hosting Indian Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi in Moscow underscores Russia’s attempt to intimidate Ukraine’s allies and sway the Indo-Pacific in its favor.

Meanwhile, the frontline in the war in Ukraine appears to have remained relatively stable based on data from ACLED over the past month. Permission from President Joe Biden and other Western leaders for Ukraine to hit Russian targets with American-supplied weaponry has helped retain Ukrainian control over the city of Kharkiv and a new mobilization law has helped to bolster Ukrainian manpower, however it may be months before they are ready for the front lines.

MILITARY BUDGET KEEPS RISING AMIDST TYPICALLY BIPARTISAN SENATE AND DYSFUNCTIONAL HOUSE

Senate Appropriations Committee leaders Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) and Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), reached an agreement to boost emergency spending for both defense and domestic programs in Fiscal Year 2025, which begins Oct. 1. It was a mostly-typical bipartisan bill: Democrats acceded to Republican demands for higher military spending in return for a hike in domestic programs, though Democrats have insisted on equal increases in the past. The agreement is to increase spending for defense almost $21 billion and for domestic programs by $13.5 billion.

Meanwhile, the Senate Armed Services Committee passed its version of the Fiscal Year 2025 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) and it now heads to the full Senate. Toplines: the $920 billion total package authorizes $252 million above the request for the nuclear submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLCM-N) and associated warhead; $202 million above the request for the B-21 strategic bomber; requires a plan to deploy more than the 400 ICBMs required deployed by current law; and restores the B-52 bomber’s nuclear capability. More details are in the Center’s analysis.

In the House, its run of dysfunction continued July 11 when it failed to pass the legislative branch appropriations bill, usually one of the easiest bills to pass. However, the House is still on track to pass at least most of its 12 appropriations bills before the August recess. One thing the House is capable of passing largely along party lines: political messaging bills related to increased energy conservation of household appliances and other divisive measures.

NEW ON THE CENTER WEBSITE: U.S. AND CHINA IN LIGHT OF RUSSIA-NORTH KOREA; A DREAM NUCLEAR DEBATE

Triangular Tensions: U.S., China and the Emerging Russia-North Korea Alliance: Intern Sarah Kirchner-Barney explains the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. The new alliance is poised to impact regional security dynamics in Northeast Asia and Eastern Europe. This alignment in interest has raised concerns among the United States and its allies as it remains unknown what the North Koreans are getting from this deal. However, this could provide an opportunity for U.S.-China cooperation to reign in North Korean and Russian ambitions.

There won’t be a debate on nuclear issues this election cycle. But if there were…: Senior Policy Director John Erath, who worked for five presidents of both major parties, tackles the question: What could a substantive Presidential debate on nuclear policy issues look like? In this debate featuring fictionalized candidates, the representatives of each major party find common ground on a variety issues that could ultimately reduce and eliminate nuclear threats. “The differences are in the details, and that’s where there should be space, away from politics, for productive efforts.”