Senior Policy Director John Erath wrote an op-ed for the Georgetown Journal of International Affairs on the presence of North Korean forces in Ukraine.
The presence of North Korean forces in Ukraine could reinforce Russian propaganda aimed at forcing Ukraine into an unfavorable ceasefire by adding to misperceptions that the war might be unwinnable. However, Russia’s reliance on imported troops is actually a sign of weakness and a signal that the Kremlin is running low on manpower. Notwithstanding recent statements from U.S. leadership, NATO governments should avoid taking the bait of a “peace” process on Russian terms, and realize that the objective is not merely a ceasefire but a solution that reinforces rather than undermines regional and global stability while maintaining support for Ukraine.
Introduction
In October 2024, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) sent approximately 12,000 of its soldiers to Russia to participate in Russia’s war against Ukraine. Since then, North Korean forces have been involved in combat operations and taken significant losses. The presence of outside forces was intended to demonstrate the Kremlin’s willingness to prolong the conflict and strengthen Russian negotiating positions in possible ceasefire talks. That Moscow felt forced to turn to another source of manpower and task outsiders with dying to preserve Russian ambition, however, should be read as a sign of weakness. Developing policies that maximize the likelihood of sustainable peace will require understanding Russian motivations for turning to Kim Jong Un and avoiding Moscow’s game. Thus, Western leaders should follow a balanced policy that pairs maintaining support to Kyiv with an openness to diplomacy while not being influenced by Russian efforts. Read more
