Front and Center: May 18, 2024

RUSSIA PREDICTABLY ESCALATES NUCLEAR RHETORIC; BIDEN ADMIN. SAYS RESEARCH SATELLITE LAUNCHED BEFORE WAR

New reporting indicates that the Biden administration believes Russia launched a research spacecraft for an anti-satellite nuclear weapon shortly before invading Ukraine in 2022, though the satellite itself was not nuclear. This revelation comes on the heels of the administration’s increasing concerns that Russia will add nuclear weapons to its counterspace capabilities, and only weeks after Russia vetoed a UN Security Council resolution reaffirming commitment to the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, to which Russia is a party.

This new capability is purportedly designed to destroy satellites, not to launch attacks against the U.S. mainland or any other countries from space, and there is no indication that it actually works.

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin visited China and issued a joint statement with Xi Jinping (more on that below). He also announced military exercises this week including practice for potential use of non-strategic nuclear weapons in the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine. These drills are significant, writes Senior Policy Director John Erath in his latest blog post, because the 2014 seizure of Crimea followed an “exercise” designed to disguise Russian military movements.

While these developments are concerning, they are not surprising, writes Erath. Every year around this time, Russia celebrates its “Victory Day” with excessive self-congratulation and its leaders typically invoke strong rhetoric as they seek to forward their perceived interests. Since the beginning of the month, Russia has threatened NATO and the United Kingdom, and has accused the United States of increasing the global nuclear risk by aiding Ukraine, but this may mask underlying weakness.

NEW NUCLEAR WAR BOOK ADDS TO ONGOING PUBLIC CONVERSATION

For the past few months, we’ve told you about the increased public attention on nuclear weapons issues thanks to films like the Academy Award-winning Oppenheimer, the Netflix movie Einstein and the Bomb, Netflix’s Turning Point: The Bomb and the Cold War, and The New York Times’s excellent ongoing series, At the Brink.

We can now add to the list Annie Jacobsen’s gripping new book, Nuclear War: A Scenario. The book provides a chilling account of the effects of a major nuclear exchange. As The Times noted in its book review, Jacobsen, “has done her homework. She has spent more than a decade interviewing dozens of experts while mastering the voluminous literature on the subject, some of it declassified only in recent years. ‘Nuclear war is insane,’ she writes. ‘Every person I interviewed for this book knows this.’ Yet the sword of Damocles hanging over our heads remains unsheathed.”

U.S. CALLS ON CHINA, RUSSIA TO REGULATE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE USE IN NUCLEAR DEPLOYMENT

On May 16, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a joint statement about nuclear war and other issues as efforts to deepen their new strategic partnership continue. The statement on nuclear war was brief: “There can be no winners in a nuclear war and it should never be fought” — strikingly similar to President Ronald Reagan’s joint statement with Soviet Leader Mikhail Gorbachev in 1985.

On May 2, a senior U.S. State Department official called on China and Russia to join the United States, France, and Britain in declaring that only humans, not Artificial Intelligence (AI), will make decisions on nuclear deployment. This comes as the United States has sought to separate discussions with China over AI and regional military tensions from broader competition and contention.

Meanwhile, concerns are rising over China’s plans to develop floating nuclear reactors to power military facilities in the South China Sea. Despite ongoing research and safety concerns, China appears to be advancing these plans, alarming U.S. officials who warn of significant risks including environmental threats.

NORTH KOREAN DIPLOMACY WITH IRAN CONTINUES AMIDST NUCLEAR DRILLS

In late April, North Korea sent a high-level diplomatic delegation to Iran. It marked the first such engagement that North Korea has had with Iran since 2019, prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. The delegation was led by North Korea’s minister of external economic relations and comes after the international UN panel responsible for monitoring enforcement of multilateral sanctions on North Korea was disbanded in late April as a result of Russia’s veto to reauthorize the panel.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un also oversaw a military drill in late April that simulated a nuclear counterattack, during which multiple short-range KN-25 ballistic missiles were launched from road-mobile launchers. The drill tested a new nuclear command-and-control system called “Haekbangashoe,” or the nuclear counterattack commanding system that would enable the dual-capable KN-25 to be switched from a non-nuclear mission to a nuclear one on short notice.

IRANIAN LEADERS THREATEN NUCLEAR BOMB CONSTRUCTION, ALLUDE TO ALREADY HAVING ONE

In the wake of last month’s military exchanges between Iran and Israel, several voices inside Iran have been playing up the nuclear threat. On May 9, a top foreign policy advisor to the Supreme Leader told the press that if Israel threatens the existence of the Iranian state or its nuclear facilities, then Iran would be forced to alter its nuclear doctrine and pursue construction of a nuclear bomb. The advisor, Kamal Kharrazi, warned that Iran possesses all the requirements for building a nuclear weapon and would do so if Israel was not deterred. A day later, an Iranian member of parliament remarked during an interview that it’s possible that Iran already possesses a nuclear weapon, saying, “In my opinion, we have achieved nuclear weapons, but we do not announce it.”

On May 14, Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, expressed grave concerns over discussions within Iran about potentially abandoning its prohibition on nuclear weapons. Following talks with British Foreign Secretary David Cameron, Grossi emphasized the need to halt such rhetoric. He highlighted the precarious state of the current inspection agreement with Iran and stressed the importance of improving access for inspectors to ensure the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear activities, warning of significant global implications if transparency is not restored.

COMPENSATION FOR RADIATION VICTIMS EXPIRES IN WEEKS

The Radiation Exposure Compensation Act (RECA), and the associated compensation for victims of U.S. nuclear weapons testing and production, expires on June 7. RECA was first enacted to help those who suffered severe health problems or family members exposed to radiation from nuclear bomb tests or mining uranium. While the Senate approved a measure extending and expanding RECA in March in a 69-30 vote, the House has yet to act.

HOUSE RELEASES DRAFT DEFENSE AUTHORIZATION ACT

The House Armed Services Committee (HASC) this week released its draft of the Fiscal Year 2025 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). Unsurprisingly, the NDAA continues the trend of increased investment in nuclear weapons. For example, the draft NDAA once again authorizes $190 million for the nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile (SLCM-N) and its associated warhead despite no money being requested for it. As a reminder, that system was cancelled in the Biden administration’s Nuclear Posture Review.

Encouragingly, the draft NDAA does include language on keeping a “human in the loop” for critical nuclear weapons use decisions. This language is aimed at ensuring AI will not make launch decisions on nuclear weapons. A full analysis of the House NDAA and floor consideration will be included in next month’s newsletter once the bill is marked up and debated by HASC and the full House.

OP-ED: THE NEXT GENERATION OF ARMS CONTROLLERS NEEDS OUR HELP

Research Analyst Connor Murray recently authored an article for Inkstick focused on the next generation of arms control professionals. The article was inspired by trips Murray took to his alma mater, the University of Illinois, as well as to Vienna, Austria. On both occasions, he spoke to students interested in arms control and other challenges facing humanity today.

Murray argues that fostering the next generation of arms controllers means visiting places not always associated with policy professionals. It is imperative, he writes, that “if we want to grow the nuclear nonproliferation field, we should make it easier for students and young adults who are interested in this important work.”

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