UKRAINE CAN USE U.S. WEAPONS TO ATTACK RUSSIAN HOMELAND; NORTH KOREAN TROOPS ARE ON THE GROUNDAmerican officials now estimate that North Korea has sent 10,000 troops to aid Russia in the war in Ukraine. In an article for 38 North, Senior Policy Director John Erath lays out potential motives and outcomes in this new chapter of Russia’s relationship with North Korea. Erath notes that Russia has long based its military strategy on being able to absorb more casualties than its adversaries and Moscow’s decision to employ foreign troops in the war could speak to a level of desperation to maintain this tactic as casualties mount. Erath also remarks on the importance of considering what North Korea is interested in gaining from sending its soldiers to die in Ukraine, particularly the possibility of “receiving more advanced military technology from Russia as payment for North Korean lives.” With Russia’s use of nuclear threats throughout the war and their involvement of a nuclear-armed North Korea, these are worrying signs of a “disturbing precedent for nuclear-aided aggression that could be repeated in Northeast Asia.” Meanwhile, Erath traveled to Seoul, South Korea, and wrote about how his trip was an important opportunity to understand how Koreans view nuclear issues outside of the Washington-centric viewpoint. Particularly, Erath saw how having North Korea directly on its border influences every security calculation for the South Korea and how this can be seen as the ever more serious internal debate over whether South Korea should acquire its own nuclear weapons. As South Korea weighs its options, Erath writes, “It is important to consider U.S. nuclear capabilities as a means to an end, rather than the solution to Korean security… the issue is not simply North Korean nuclear weapons, but the overall threat of North Korean hostility.” On Sunday, November 17, U.S. officials said the Biden administration made a change in policy to allow Ukraine to use U.S. weapons to strike deeper inside Russia. |
ISRAELI ATTACK DESTROYED IRANIAN NUCLEAR EQUIPMENT; IRAN ALLOWS INTERNATIONAL INSPECTORS TO VISIT
Amid renewed concerns over Iran’s nuclear program due to heightened tensions with nuclear-armed Israel, Iran permitted International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director general Rafael Grossi to visit Natanz and Fordo enrichment plants on November 15. The Center’s Paul A. Castleman Policy Fellow Samuel Hickey told Agence France-Presse that allowing the visits, particularly Fordo which is “among Iran’s most proliferation-sensitive sites,” is a signal from Iran “that the easiest access to these facilities is through diplomatic engagement.” After the unilateral U.S. exit from the Iran deal in 2018, negotiators have struggled to bring Iran and the United States back to the bargaining table, and reduced access to Iran’s nuclear facilities following the U.S. withdrawal has only fueled fears over Iran’s nuclear activities.
On November 15, Israeli officials said an October attack on an Iranian military complex destroyed equipment that Iran needs to build a nuclear weapon. Iran has said it will plan a decisive response.
BIDEN AND XI TALK ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND NUCLEAR WEAPONSDays ago, China unveiled a prototype nuclear reactor designed to power its next-generation aircraft carriers, potentially marking a significant advancement in its maritime capabilities. The reactor could allow Chinese carriers to operate longer and without refueling, enhancing their strategic reach into the Indo-Pacific. Additionally, the Office of Legal Affairs at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) met with a Chinese delegation in late October at the request of Beijing. According to the IAEA, China is set to strengthen its nuclear legal framework through cooperation by refining regulatory standards and bolstering legal oversight in nuclear safety. Meanwhile, Research Analyst Shawn Rostker writes in Asia Times that recent military mishaps like waterlogged missiles and a sinking submarine should not be mistaken for strategic weakness. “Such interpretations often reflect a lack of holistic understanding of China’s strategic priorities and long-term goals. Corruption, for example, while problematic for internal military governance, does not inherently translate into an inability to manage or deploy nuclear forces. Similarly, inefficiencies in the DIB may slow aspects of China’s broader military modernization, but they don’t undermine the strategic importance of China’s nuclear arsenal in the eyes of Chinese Communist Party leaders. Misreading these signals could lead U.S. policymakers to misunderstand China’s actual capabilities and motivations, thereby diverting focus from more important objectives like risk reduction and transparency.” On Saturday, November 16, President Joe Biden met with Chinese leader Xi Jinping and, among other things, agreed that any decision to use nuclear weapons should be made by humans rather than artificial intelligence. |
INDIA ENHANCES NUCLEAR CAPABILITIESIn mid-October, India launched its fourth nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine. This addition to India’s nuclear triad theoretically enhances its second-strike capability, but delays have emerged in other defense acquisitions, including the S-400 air defense system and a nuclear attack submarine from Russia. In a welcome surprise, it was announced last month that India has revised its border patrol agreements with China along the Line of Actual Control. However, it remains to be seen how impactful this revised agreement will prove to be or if it will produce a fundamental de-escalation of hostilities. Research Analyst Shawn Rostker had made this recommendation among others in an op-ed for The Diplomat in August. |
PAKISTAN FACING RENEWED INTERNATIONAL SCRUTINYIslamabad’s nuclear and missile initiatives have come under renewed international scrutiny. These curbs have intensified Pakistan’s diplomatic responses, including a strong stance against any fissile material ban, which Pakistan, fronting for China, argues would disproportionately impact its security interests. In response to these restrictions, Pakistan has underscored its stance on maintaining strategic autonomy while continuing to develop its defense capabilities. This diplomatic positioning reflects ongoing challenges in balancing national defense imperatives with international pressure on non-proliferation. |
TRUMP NAMES PICKS FOR NATIONAL SECURITY, FOREIGN POLICY ROLESLast week, rumors and announcements have shown an emphasis on national security roles in a second Trump administration. The people announced to fill key roles in the administration so far indicate that the foreign policy will focus on competition with China and transactional diplomacy. While this may be concerning in a number of policy areas, it could be promising as it relates to continued support for Ukraine. The following appointments have been announced to date:
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