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THE FUTURE OF ARMS CONTROL: ANNUAL CONFERENCE RECAP The Center hosted its annual conference September 19 with both in-person and virtual attendees, including hundreds of supporters like you. The theme was the future of arms control, and our expert speakers discussed critical topics including involving China in arms control negotiations, the changing role of arms control, using technological advancements in treaty verification and more. Here’s a link to the livestream video on YouTube in case you weren’t able to join us or want to save it and rewatch it again, along with a breakdown of key points:
Watch it for the first time or watch it again.
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FIGHTING IN UKRAINE CONTINUES Fighting in Ukraine continued over the past month as Ukraine’s counteroffensive seems to have gained pace, gradually overcoming Russian defenses and numbers, enabled in part by superior western technology. Ukrainian defenses have successfully intercepted a number of Russian missile attacks, but as NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg remarked on September 19, Ukraine remains in urgent need of additional air defenses, including maintenance and spare componentry in order to provide more adequate coverage. Denmark and the Netherlands have agreed to supply Ukraine with F-16s, and the United States has agreed to send a new package of military assistance including additional air defense and artillery munitions, mine clearing equipment, medical vehicles and a plethora of small arms. Meanwhile, the 31 M1 Abrams tanks the United States previously supplied will be deployed to the battlefield soon, according to Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy traveled to the United States last week to deliver a speech at the United Nations condemning Russia’s actions and warning against the global consequences of failure to muster collective action. He met with House and Senate leadership on September 21 before meeting with President Joe Biden at the White House. Ukraine has continued to signal a commitment to anti-corruption, with Zelenskyy replacing his defense minister and six deputy ministers within the defense ministry as Western leaders have expressed concern over misuse of aid in military recruitment and overspending on procurement of food and supplies. |
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FUNDING DEFENSE AMIDST A LIKELY GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN Despite all of the discord in the House of Representatives, work continues on both sides of the Capitol complex on Pentagon authorization and funding legislation. After a month of little action, staff-level negotiations have begun on the annual National Defense Authorization Act between the House and Senate. The Center recently published a comparative analysis of the House and Senate versions. The measures contain modest increases in nuclear budgets rather than efforts to eliminate unnecessary or wasteful spending. It is unclear if, or when, there will be comprehensive action on government funding legislation for fiscal year 2024. The fiscal year ends on September 30 and, without additional action, programs will continue to be funded at last year’s levels until new legislation is passed. For a reminder of what last year’s levels are, you can refer to the Center’s analysis of the fiscal year 2023 appropriations legislation. The chances of a government shutdown continue to persist. |
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WITH IRAN, HOSTAGE AGREEMENT DOES NOT NECESSARILY EQUAL RETURN TO NUCLEAR AGREEMENT U.S.-Iran tensions have seemingly cooled a degree or two this past month with the release of five detained Americans as part of an agreement struck by the Biden administration that would allow Iran controlled access to $6 billion in frozen oil revenues. It remains to be seen how much of an impact this swap will have on nuclear issues. Addressing the United Nations General Assembly on September 19, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi said the United States must continue to “demonstrate good will” in order to return to the 2015 deal. |
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NORTH KOREA CONTINUES WEAPONS DEVELOPMENTS North Korea continues to tout its weapons and capabilities programs. In the past month, the regime has failed a second attempt to place a spy satellite on orbit, debuted an upgraded “tactical” nuclear submarine, and conducted another set of ballistic missile tests. North Korea said that it would attempt another launch of a satellite in October. On top of this, Kim Jong Un traveled to Russia and met with Vladimir Putin in a historic multi-day summit that saw him tour Russian nuclear and industrial facilities and discuss potential arms transfers. Senior Policy Director John Erath spoke with VOA Korean and New Zealand’s Newshub about the implications of this meeting, noting that North Korea’s weapons are bad copies of Chinese weapons, which were bad copies of Russian weapons to begin with. This should be highly embarrassing for the Russians, who have always prided themselves in their military, Erath said, but while what Russia is getting from North Korea is concerning, what North Korea might get from Russia is equally concerning. Still, it all signals Russia’s war is not going well and it is increasingly desperate and isolated. |
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