Senior Policy Director John Erath spoke with BBC News Brasil about the Iran war and the need for diplomacy. The original article is in Portuguese.
John Erath, senior director of the American institute Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation, sees risks in what he describes as “the continuation of a series of misguided decisions made by leaders of various countries.”
Erath points out that negotiations regarding the Iranian nuclear program were still underway when the country was attacked last year by Israel and the United States. This year, the attacks have once again begun amidst ongoing negotiations.
“Instead of exhausting all possibilities for negotiation, the United States and Israel chose to attack Iran’s nuclear program last year,” Erath tells BBC News Brazil.
“If this chain of misguided decisions persists, it is possible that Iran will conclude that it will be safer possessing nuclear weapons and decide to manufacture them,” says Erath, whose Washington-based organization gathers analysis and research on arms control and non-proliferation.
“And Saudi Arabia has already stated that if Iran possesses nuclear weapons, it will follow the same path. And some other countries in the region may do the same.”
“The facilities involved in the nuclear program were certainly damaged,” Erath notes. “But the scientific knowledge to produce a nuclear weapon still exists. In time, Iran could rebuild its facilities and put that knowledge into practice.”
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“Voices advocating nuclear proliferation are gaining strength,” notes Erath of the Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation, highlighting three factors that, according to him, are pushing the world in that direction.
The first is China’s efforts. “They have roughly doubled the size of their nuclear arsenal in the last decade and show no signs of stopping,” he notes.
The second is Russia’s war against Ukraine . “If Russia is able to claim success in its war of aggression, that triumph will have been made possible by nuclear threats. This introduces a new instrument of political strategy that other countries will covet.”
The third point, according to Erath, is the “perception of unpredictability of the United States,” which generates uncertainty for both adversaries and allies.
“With uncertainty and insecurity present, there will always be those who consider nuclear weapons as a possible source of additional security,” he states.
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“Nuclear weapons are tremendously expensive, very difficult to build and maintain, and also dangerous,” Erath points out.
“No one builds them on a whim; there needs to be an existential threat for a country to feel the need to manufacture nuclear weapons,” he states. “A nuclear arms race is in no one’s interest.” Read more
