Senior Policy Director John Erath spoke with RTÉ News (Ireland) about the global state of nuclear proliferation as well as the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran.
“When the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) was signed in the late 1960s,” he told RTÉ News, “the general estimate was that in 10 years, we would have had 20 nuclear powers”.
The NPT was a cornerstone UN treaty aimed at curtailing the spread of nuclear weapons and committing member states to nuclear development for peaceful means only.
The treaty recognised only five nuclear powers who were, and still are, the permanent members of the UN Security Council – China, France, Russia, UK and US.
Today, 191 UN member states are signatories to the NPT.
Five are not, namely Israel, North Korea, India, Pakistan and South Sudan.
“There has been some success for non-proliferation, and I credit the NPT for getting us there,” he said.
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“Nobody likes having nuclear weapons,” John Erath said, adding “they’re tremendously expensive, very dangerous and very difficult to build and maintain”.
He added: “So, the real question is: Why do these threats exist and lead countries to decide to develop and build nuclear weapons?”
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But while Iran’s nuclear programme will likely be set back given recent strikes by Israel, and the US overnight, it’s unlikely to be destroyed altogether, Mr Erath told RTÉ News.
“The most important factor in producing a nuclear weapon is knowledge,” he said, “and it’s very difficult to kill knowledge”.
“It’s tremendously expensive in terms of resources that both Israel and Iran would be putting into this and most importantly, the cost in human lives,” he said.
