Senior Policy Director John Erath spoke with De Tijd about the war in Iran and a possible nuclear arms race. The original article is in Flemish.
“More and more countries feel insecure,” said John Erath, a former US diplomat now serving as policy director at the Center for Arms Control and Non Proliferation. “Globally, the belief is returning that nuclear weapons can provide that security. And with reason. There is no real alternative. Deterrence has so far prevented nuclear war, but often by luck. No one knows how long that will last. That makes the situation extremely worrying.”
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Conversely, Ukraine inherited the world’s third largest nuclear arsenal after the collapse of the Soviet Union, only to relinquish it in 1994 in exchange for security guarantees from the West and Russia. Two decades later, Russia invaded. “In Ukraine, there is a widespread belief that the country would not be suffering as it is today had it kept its nuclear weapons,” Erath said.
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At the same time, Trump has cast doubt on US commitment to NATO, long underpinned by the American nuclear umbrella. “Nuclear protection is as much about psychology as it is about mathematics,” Erath said. “With that unpredictability, US allies feel they can no longer fully rely on Washington. So they start looking for alternatives.”
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Ultimately, all experts agree that only diplomacy offers a durable solution. “For now, proliferation remains more theoretical than real,” Erath said. “That gives us time for dialogue.” The question is who will lead it.
“The most obvious candidate remains the United States,” he added. “For Trump, non-proliferation would be a shorter path to a Nobel Peace Prize than the course he is currently pursuing. And it would not require destroying anyone.” Read more
