Front and Center: June 30, 2026

WITH THE IRAN WAR ON HOLD FOR NOW, NEGOTIATIONS CONTINUE FOR FINAL AGREEMENT

Efforts to end the war between the United States and Iran gained momentum this month following the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to bring an end to the fighting. Significant obstacles remain before a final agreement can be reached, however. 

Included in the MOU were provisions to re-open the Strait of Hormuz, ease sanctions, end hostilities on all fronts in the Middle East and create a reconstruction account for Iran, and a vague statement that Iran would not pursue a nuclear weapon. Just three days after the MOU was signed, Iran once again closed the Strait of Hormuz following an Israeli attack in Lebanon, raising concerns that the fragile diplomatic opening would collapse. Iran and the United States also exchanged strikes over the weekend, prompting renewed concerns about the ceasefire’s durability. Despite this rocky beginning, conversations have continued between the United States and Iran on a final agreement addressing Iran’s nuclear program, regional activities and other thorny subjects.

Both sides provided conflicting accounts regarding the return of International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors to Iranian nuclear sites while negotiations are ongoing, but it is clear that any final negotiated outcome will require robust verification and monitoring from the IAEA. The dueling interpretations on the inspection issue offer a glimpse into the fraught negotiating process, which is at risk of derailing over a plethora of issues.

PUTIN CONTINUES NUCLEAR SABER-RATTLING AS UKRAINIAN BATTLEFIELD SUCCESSES MOUNT

Last month, Russia conducted joint nuclear drills with Belarus involving weapons from all legs of its triad as well as theater weapons in a demonstration of the country’s extensive nuclear arsenal. The drills came as Putin visited Chinese President Xi Jinping and in response to expanded Ukrainian drone strikes against Moscow’s suburbs. Throughout the war, Putin has made use of nuclear threats when faced with battlefield setbacks. 

Ukrainian drone strikes continue to wreak havoc on Russian troops and military infrastructure, and Moscow is struggling to keep up with the ever-rising costs of its illegal invasion. Kyiv demonstrated its ability to strike deep into Russian-controlled territory several times over the past month, hitting energy infrastructure and other targets on the Crimean Peninsula. Russia now faces a critical fuel shortage as a result of the strikes, bringing the consequences of Putin’s war home for average Russian citizens.

NORTH KOREA EXPANDS NAVAL NUCLEAR ARSENAL

North Korea recently commissioned a 5,000-ton destroyer equipped with allegedly nuclear-capable ballistic and cruise missiles, as a symbol of its growing naval and nuclear might. According to the state-run Korean Central News Agency, Kim said during his fiery commissioning ceremony speech that “the combat capability of our navy will grow to be admirable beyond imagination.” Kim ordered that at least two destroyers of this size be built each year.

The fact that this destroyer was built quickly indicates that North Korea most likely got assistance from its allies such as Russia, according to Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul. Yu Ji-hoon, research fellow at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, said, “the North Korean navy is moving away from its existing coastal-defense-centered structure towards extending its nuclear and missile threat into the maritime domain.” Kim proclaimed that North Korea has entered a new age in military advancements following 70 years of stagnation.

President Trump appears to have taken notice. In a meeting with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung at the G7, Trump stated it was time to refocus on the North Korea issue.

ARMED SERVICES COMMITTEES AUTHORIZE MORE THAN $1T FOR PENTAGON

Both the House and Senate Armed Services Committees concluded consideration of the Fiscal Year 2027 National Defense Authorization Act this month. Neither committee was willing to decrease the Trump administration’s requested top line of $1.15 trillion in the authorized legislation. Democrats in both committees unsuccessfully sought to cut $150 billion from the topline.  

Encouragingly, a number of amendments, like a requirement for a report on the necessity of maintaining the 400 deployed on-alert intercontinental ballistic missiles, gained significant support during the NDAA markups though they were ultimately not included in the approved legislation.

The full House is set to consider the NDAA this week, while the Senate may consider its version after the July 4 recess. Read the Center’s analysis of the House NDAA. A Senate version is forthcoming and will be included in next month’s newsletter.

Congressional Republicans may seek to attach the controversial SAVE America Act (Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act) to the NDAA, which would greatly decrease the annual defense bill’s chances of passage.

CONGRESS FINALLY ACTS ON IRAN WAR BUT IMPLICATIONS ARE UNCLEAR

The House and Senate passed a War Powers Resolution to end the Iran war this month, sending the clearest signal of disapproval yet over President Donald Trump’s war of choice. The legislation is a concurrent resolution, meaning it does not require the President’s signature, and was adopted by bipartisan votes in both houses of Congress. It is unclear if this type of resolution would pose a legal obstacle to the President from resuming hostilities in the Iran war, as typically concurrent resolutions are used for congressional rulemaking and do not carry the force of law. Regardless, the bipartisan opposition to the conflict is clear and this success would not have been possible without a majority of Americans standing up against new wars in the Middle East.

TRUMP WANTS $88B IN TAXPAYER MONEY FOR HIS UNPOPULAR WAR OF CHOICE

Hot on the heels of Congress’s rebuke of the Iran war, the Trump administration this week requested almost $90 billion in additional money, in part to pay for the war. The request came as Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth spent the week on Capitol Hill lobbying lawmakers not only to provide this funding, but also pass a $350 billion boost for the Pentagon via a third reconciliation package. Members of Congress from both parties have poured cold water on the chances of both packages passing. House Republicans seem eager to act on both, while the Senate may only push to provide the $88 billion sought for the war in Iran. Neither has a high chance of passage.

FRANCE’S NEW NUKES AND THE FUTURE OF EUROPEAN SECURITY

In March, while speaking at a nuclear submarine base in Brittany, French President Emmanuel Macron made the momentous announcement that France would be providing access to its nuclear umbrella for other interested European nations. The speech came amidst the backdrop of U.S. attacks on the NATO alliance and concerns amongst European nations about U.S. extended deterrence. Since Macron’s announcement, nine nations have joined the scheme including, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Greece, the Netherlands, Poland, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and Norway.

The arrangement is still in its fledgling stages, but if it is seen through, the plan would allow French nuclear-armed fighters to temporarily be based in participating nations to deter a nuclear strike. As Putin continues to rachet up his inflammatory nuclear rhetoric over the war in Ukraine, more European nations are turning to the French to provide a credible deterrent.

Macron’s presidency ends in 2027, and French domestic politics could complicate the implementation of this new nuclear sharing framework. Regardless of what eventually comes of this effort, it is clear that European nations are planning for a security landscape decoupled from the United States.

This is a major blow to non-proliferation efforts, but what does this mean for European and American security? The latest Nukes of Hazard podcast episode discusses France’s new approach to its nuclear arsenal, how it aligns with French tradition and how the United States should respond. Listen online or search for “Nukes of Hazard” wherever you get your podcasts.

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