Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation

Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation

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Another short term CR hurts effort to secure/eliminate bomb grade material

Last week the Senate rejected both the long-term House-passed Continuing Resolution (CR) (HR 1) and the Senate Appropriations Committee version.  This week Congress will again consider a short-term CR extending spending to April 8.  The text of the proposed three-week measure can be found here.

The newest proposed short-term CR continues the status quo on funding for NNSA’s Defense Nuclear Non-Proliferation account, the Defense Department’s Cooperative Threat Reduction program, and a host of important nonproliferation programs at the State Department.  These programs continue to be funded at the FY2010 level, as has been the case since the start of the fiscal year on October 1, 2010.      

Looking for some numbers to focus on?  How about these:

  • $2.1 billion – spending level for “Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation” since the beginning of Fiscal Year 2011 that began on October 1, 2010.  This is $551 million less than the Administration’s request for Fiscal Year 2011.  The Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation account has been funded at or very near the FY2010 appropriated level since October 1, 2010.
  • $7.0 billion. – spending level for “National Nuclear Security Administration – Weapons Activities” (Nuclear complex modernization).  This is $624 million above the Fiscal Year 2010 level.  Unlike the Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation account, the Weapons Activities account has been funded at the FY2011 requested level since October 1, 2010.

Meanwhile, we’ve created a website with information about the current fight about the budget and proposed cuts to nuclear security spending over at the mothership.  My favorite resource? A handy chart on the impact of the various short and long term CRs on NNSA’s nonpro and weapons activities accounts. Check it out.

Iran’s Nuclear Intentions

A few big things have come out recently with regard to Iran’s nuclear program.  While some were long awaited and highly anticipated, such as the new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), none turned out to be particularly earth shattering.

A new NIE on Iran’s nuclear program will remain classified, but reportedly walks back the conclusions of the controversial 2007 NIE, which stated that Iran had ceased its nuclear weapons activities in 2003.  Reports indicate that while Iran may not have made the ultimate decision to build a nuclear weapon, due to internal politics and external pressure, it is likely working on the components of such a device.  

“We believe Iran is moving to the threshold of a nuclear weapons capability,” Robert Einhorn, the State Department’s senior adviser for nonproliferation and arms control, said at a briefing today.  Due to the inefficient nature of Iran’s uranium enrichment technology, though, Einhorn says that “it would make no sense” for Iran to make the decision to build a nuclear weapon at this point.

Likewise, the most recent report (GOV/2011/7) of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) continues to express concern over the possible military dimensions of Iran’s nuclear program, noting that some of these activities may have continued past 2004.  According to the IAEA, Iran continues to deny a number of its Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) obligations, including implementation of the Additional Protocol and modified Code 3.1 of the Subsidiary Arrangements General Part to its Safeguards Agreement; suspension of enrichment and heavy water related activities; and “clarification of the remaining outstanding issues which give rise to concerns about possible military dimensions to its nuclear program.”

Additionally, IAEA Chief Yukiya Amano reported Monday that Iran may have engaged in nuclear weaponization studies more recently than previously thought.

“Unfortunately, I cannot say a lot on this issue. But I can tell you that we have received information…” since the last board meeting in December, Amano said, “we have received some information raising further concerns.”

Tomorrow, Army Lieutenant General Ronald Burgess, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), will appear before the Senate Armed Services Committee to deliver his assessment of world threats facing the US. His prepared statement, released today, suggests that any new news from the US is likely to be equally optimistic.

Senate Democrats Propose 7-Month Continuing Resolution

Last Friday, Senate Democrats released a summary of their version of a Continuing Resolution for the rest of FY 2011 that would cut $51 billion from the President’s FY 2011 request compared to the $100 billion that the House cut in HR 1.

The Senate CR proposes $2.327 billion for the Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation account, which is $360 million below the FY 2011 request but nearly $300 million more than HR 1. The bill summary states that this level of funding maintains U.S. efforts to secure vulnerable nuclear materials in 4 years.

I have not seen a figure for the Defense Department’s Cooperative Threat Reduction program or the State Department’s nuclear security programs.  The draft Senate CR funds the Pentagon base budget at $513.6 billion and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan at $157.8 billion for a total of $671.3 billion. That total is $17.3 billion less than the President’s request and $2.1 billion less than HR 1.

Also of note, the Senate CR provides $6.824 billion for NNSA’s weapons activities account, which is $185 million below the FY 2011 request but over $120 million more than HR 1.

The Senate will hold stand-alone votes on both HR 1 and the Senate Democratic alternative this week (probably tomorrow), both of which are likely to fail to achieve cloture.  Negotiations will then begin on a full year CR.  However the House and the Senate may not be able to reconcile their differences before the current two week CR expires on March 18, meaning there will likely be yet another short term CR to fund the government through the rest of March.

The Senate proposal for the Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation account is an improvement over the House proposal, but it is still not enough. The number in the draft Senate CR is likely to be the high-water mark for NNSA’s nonproliferation budget for the next two years unless the administration and members of Congress make a strong push for the full FY2011 request.