North Korean leader Kim Jong-il is reportedly in China and there’s speculation his son Kim Jong-un, heir apparent, is traveling with him. Kim Jong-il’s China trips are usually confirmed after he returns to the North out of security reasons, but officials have reportedly said they detected signs of his movement. It is also his second visit to China in the same year, and his last one was in May.
Kim’s reported trip coincides with that of former U.S. President Jimmy Carter’s in Pyongyang (read previous post) to secure the release of an American missionary. Carter was widely expected to sit down with Kim, and it is unclear whether that meeting was held before Kim departed for China. IF Carter and Kim did not meet, then it may be because Kim felt a China trip to be much more urgent.
Why is Kim Jong-il in China? When analysing North Korea, it is always easy to speculate than offer concrete analysis based on confirmed facts because the regime is in a black box. Still, we can do some “brain exercises” and think of possible scenarios:
1. The most widely speculated reason: Perhaps to solidfy Beijing’s recognition support for his youngest son Kim Jong-un as his successor since Kim’s health is said to be fast deteriorating and ahead of a rare and crucial leadership meeting of the ruling Workers’ Party. There has been much speculation that Kim may announce his successor at that meeting. Many experts have speculated they need China’s seal of approval for his successor, but some experts argue that Pyongyang does not require Beijing’s approval on how to run its internal affairs; or…
2. Kim Jong-il realized the flood crisis is more serious than expected and needs China’s help; or…
3. He needs medical treatment in China because of he is said to be very ill; or…
4. He wanted to go down memory lane in China and pass down family stories to his son, heir-apparent Kim Jong-un, before passing away because of his ailing health. Kim visited the middle school his father and nation founder Kim Il-sung attended, which was something he reportedly wanted to do for years.
